Let's Talk about Third Base Desperation, I insist.

By Stevil, December 29th, 2019 

There are a number of teams in need of help at the hot corner and there's a shortage of available options, thanks to teams like Cincinnati inking the Moose and LA committing nearly a quarter-billion to Anthony Rendon. With those two off the market, Donaldson is the sole remaining free agent worthy of a multi-year deal, yet teams like Washington, Atlanta, Texas, Minnesota, LAD, and even Philadelphia, are known to be looking for (or at) upgrades. Toronto might be in the mix as well. This has resulted in significant speculation over trades involving Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, and Kyle Seager, two of which have notable price tags attached, while the other would require an arm and a leg to acquire. Pick your poison.



To complicate things a little further, Colorado doesn't have a clear cut replacement and still seem to see themselves as contenders, despite a problematic pitching staff and a stale offense even with Arenado. Seattle doesn't have a clear replacement, either, and they're a team who could benefit from a veteran presence over the next couple of years (at least) as a number of prospects integrate into the active roster.

When you take a harder look at Atlanta, they could always gut it out with Riley if they're unable to retain Donaldson and reassess at the deadline. They might even be open to giving Camargo an opportunity to rebound in a regular role. The Dodgers could stick with Turner, though he's declining and probably should move to first. Same goes for the Twins, who could keep Sano where he is, but ultimately should be shifted across the diamond, or out of town. Toronto was among the worst clubs in baseball at the hot corner last season and Guerrero is going to move to first sooner, rather than later, but Biggio or Shaw could buy time for Groshans. Philadelphia would probably be just fine with Kingery at third until Bohm is ready, which would seemingly make them the least desperate of the teams cited.

The teams that appear to desperately need answers are the Nationals and Rangers But are they willing to give an aging Donaldson 4 years and 80-100 million? Is any team willing to go that far? The extra year would seemingly be more important than the AAV, so maybe he settles for something more reasonable, but he's going to get to paid. 

To land Arenado, Colorado would probably demand pitching and near-ready or ready-now players/prospects that could impact the roster and without eating salary. They might be willing to take on salary in return, but that's not the same as actually sending cash. Nolan's contract also contains a no-trade clause and an opt-out, though both could be addressed at the time of a deal and likely settled with an extra year tacked on to his current deal.

But is Colorado really willing to deal away the face of the franchise whom they just extended a year ago? They have major payroll restrictions, but the contracts currently hindering the organization the most will be off the books in 2021. They might be more inclined to wait it out and reassess after they sort out their pitching dilemma and get some of those dead contracts off the books.

To land Bryant, a team would have to sacrifice elite prospects--if Chicago is even willing to deal him. Contrary to virtually everyone in the world of baseball journalism and blogospheres, I don't believe Chicago is inclined to do so--especially if they get away with having manipulated his service time. Rumblings around baseball suggest they will.

To land Seager, Seattle would probably demand... well, probably most of his salary going along with him, if not all of it, and a return featuring starting pitching or an infielder who could impact the club within a year or four. The era of focusing on upper-level prospects appears to be over, though Seattle's timeline for contention could easily get pushed back without veterans like Seager around, so it would be perfectly understandable if their asking price is higher than most would anticipate.

Is everyone following?

Let's assume Colorado stands pat with Arenado; Chicago with Bryant, and Donaldson ends up back in Atlanta or in LA. How might Texas land Kyle Seager?

Everyone knows about the clause in his contract that makes his 2022 option become a player option in the event of a trade. A year ago, that seemed to be a deal-breaker. At the moment, it's probably not a big deal. The total would be between 53-58 million depending on performance-based incentives. Mike Moustakas just got 64 million guaranteed over 4 years, plus an option for a 5th at 20 million. It's the cost to acquire Seager that would hurt more than the salary.

Seattle's in the driver's seat and getting a deal done with a division rival should sting a little. Asking for Josh Jung would probably be a stretch, but Davis Wendzel might be fair game with little or no cash accompanying Seager. That's one possibility.

The Nationals are in a tough spot as they try to replace Rendon and retain their place at the top. If they can get a little more out of Robles in center, an infield of Seager-Taylor-Kieboom-Kendrick might be sufficient offensively. It's worth noting that Seager's defense would be an upgrade that certainly wouldn't hurt the pitching staff.

The return would probably be a little more complicated as Washington probably has very little payroll flexibility. But if a little cash were to accompany Seager, perhaps Seattle could ask for Jackson Rutledge or Mason Denaburg? We can't rule out a team like Minnesota or any of the other above mentioned teams getting in on the bidding, or even a team not mentioned, though it appears nothing is going to happen until Donaldson is off the board. When that happens, the drink will flow and blood will spill, and if the GM's want to fight, you better let 'em. Bonus points for anyone who recognized that line.

One team is going to net Donaldson. Other teams are going to have to get creative to address third base. Seattle would be one of those teams if they trade Seager, but the savings could be significant for the 2020-2021 or 2021-2022 offseasons, or both, and that has to be appealing for a rebuilding Mariners' team that will be in need of veterans, regardless. One peak at the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 free agent class, and it should be clear why Jerry Dipoto has been eager to shed salary.