The August 2020 State of the Mariners Address

 By Stevil, August 13th, 2020

Stevil celebrating the release of the State of the Mariners Address with Hardball via Hardcore staff members.

We're at the one-third point in this bizarre season and, as expected, we've seen mixed results. The losses currently fall short of top-2 draft status, which would be a nice byproduct of a season committed to development because of two particular draft prospects, but there are still 40 games left. Anything can happen, except the post-season. We'll keep in tune with reality.

 

First, let's take a look at the bad.

Evan White leads MLB in strike outs, has just 7 hits and 5 walks in 74 PA's, and looks completely out of place. His swing looks different and he's widening the strike zone, often getting baited with high-heat. Getting him time in the pool would probably be wise and they do have alternatives no matter what anyone tries to tell you.

Shed Long, Dee Gordon, Mallex Smith, and Daniel Vogelbach haven't been much better. Long appears to be in an adjustment phase. The rest won't likely be around next year, so it doesn't really matter if they rebound or not.

The pitching has been inconsistent, especially among starters, but it's the bullpen that has really struggled. Injuries to Adams, Edwards, Hirano, and Brennan haven't helped, but Shaw, Grotz, Cortes, Altavilla, Misiewicz, and Swanson simply haven't been good, to put it politely. The 'pen has allowed more runs than any other team and rank 29^th in fWAR. That should only be surprising if you're not sober.

 

Now let's talk about the good.

There are just 40 more games before the offseason. There's a little more.

Kyle Lewis has been one of the best hitters in baseball and looks more than capable in center field. He's a ROY candidate and though his BABIP is high, it has been dropping steadily and he's still hitting. And walking. And adjusting. Fastballs, breaking balls, whatever they give him, he takes. The K% is declining as well, so if anyone was thinking Tyler O'Neill 2.0, they should think again. That, or just stop thinking.

JP Crawford has also hit. He has more walks than strike outs, and though he hasn't hit for much power, he's making better contact and has even hit LHPs in the early going. Nothing looks outrageous, so what we're seeing now is probably sustainable for the most part. If this is what we can expect moving forward, scratch SS off the shopping list. Looks good leading off as well.

Kyle Seager got off to a blazing start and hasn't slowed down. In fact, he's done it with a poor BABIP. For those wondering if his 2019 was a fluke, I think you have your answer. He might be on his way to a career year and there may very well be a real dilemma at hand: Trade him if possible, or keep him? We'll touch on that again later.

Dylan Moore is making loud, hard contact every bit as much as Lewis. The knock on him has been a lack of walks and limited opportunity, but both are changing—fast. This probably shouldn't be shocking, either. He put up similar numbers in the AZFL in 2016 and again with the Brewers' organization in 2018. He made adjustment to his swing and approach and the results have been immediate. There's an argument that he's most valuable in a utility role, but it would be fun to see how he performs in one place full-time. It will be fun to see his HBP total at the end of the season as well.

Austin Nola took over full-time duties before Tom Murphy ever had a chance due to an injury. He's looked more than capable of handling the load defensively. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. He's also 4^th in wRC+ at 136. Both Nola and Moore were signed as minor-league free agents in the 2019 offseason. Murphy was literally acquired for 'magic' beans. Did anyone know that Dipoto was a gardner before getting into baseball? Now you know.

Despite the surface numbers, Justus Sheffield and Yusei Kikuchi have looked good in the rotation. We've seen at least some success from virtually every other starter, so there's at least something to build off of, though most won't likely figure into the long-term plans.

As bad as the bullpen has been, Matt Magill has impressed, Edwards was looking good before the injury, Guilbeau has been surprisingly interesting, and Ramirez has missed a number of bats and stranded the ones who received free passes.

We'll summarize.

 

Most of these relievers won't be around for the long haul. The same is probably true of the rotation. The best, or most of the best, have yet to come. The catching may be perfectly fine with a Nola-Murphy combo and there's still plenty of hope for White and Long. Then there are the surprises, such as Lewis' enormous break out (yeah, we should call it that, at least for now) and the early success of Moore. Not a bad place to be in given the circumstances. 

Baseball America now has Seattle's farm ranked third overall with six top-100 prospects. Of those six, only one (White) has debuted. Kelenic and Gilbert will likely debut next season; Rodriguez, Marte, and Hancock in 2022 or 2023. Probably 2023. If there have been any questions regarding the timeline for contention, those projections would be the place to start. The contributions from most of them will be vital.