The Mature(d) 2021 Hardball via Hardcore Seattle Mariners Offseason Plan

Original Mariner Prince Namor on his uniform change ideas with 710 ESPN Seattle / MyNorthwest.com's Tom Wassell: "Shirtless or bust, you nincompoop!"   

By The Hardball via Hardcore Staff, October 20th, 2020

 

Think we got ahead of ourselves with the April plan? Think our suggestions were a stretch? We were just getting started, and while this may seem ridiculous and pointless, the fact that you clicked on the link and are spending time (wasting time) reading this introduction speaks volumes. We welcome you regardless. You might as well continue.

The 2020 season was meant to be about development and that was by and large exactly what we saw at the major-league level. Expectations were generally exceeded. Further, a sense of camaraderie was established among staff and players alike. There are plenty of positives they can build off.

And building is what we're going to discus. This is the Mature 2021 Hardball via Hardcore Seattle Mariners Offseason Plan.

With the promise and rise of players like Lewis, Moore, and Sheffield, plus the addition of Ty France and a host of other players & prospects via San Diego, Seattle's areas of need aren't nearly as glaring as many would have assumed before the 2020 season started and that includes us. Though the 2021 postseason structure has yet to be announced and there may very well be budget limitations and restrictions, Seattle probably doesn't need to blow hundreds of millions or sacrifice draft picks to find the missing pieces.

What they probably need to do is get creative. We suggest taking a step back. You can indeed be creative and lack originality, folks.

So, how might they do that and what are the missing pieces? Let's take a walk around the block...

 

1. The Infield.

Evan White and Shed Long endured difficult, if not frustrating, years. There's little doubt that had there been a minor-league season, both players would have spent significant time in AAA. Assuming there is a minor-league season in 2021, both could arguably benefit from a pressure-free environment where they can address their flaws and experiment with any necessary adjustments. That means identifying infield replacements with at least a little positional flexibility who could slide into bench/utility roles when/if necessary. Internal options, such as Dylan Moore or José Marmolejos could do the trick with Sam Haggerty and/or Donovan Mellow Yellow Walton as depth. We'll explore an external option, though, and bitterly reject any notion that it wouldn't work.

 

2. The Outfield.

Barring an extension, Jarred Kelenic probably won't break camp with the Mariners, but there's no shortage of stopgaps on hand. Jake Fraley and Braden Bishop fit the bill, as do several of the infielders capable of playing a corner. Like Bishop, Fraley has battled injury and struggled in a small MLB sample. With just 168 AAA PA's, he could probably benefit from another season in Tacoma, so Bishop might be the better choice for lame duck status.

The wild card here is Mitch Haniger. After missing the better part of 2019 and all of 2020, there's certainly reason to believe he might not be ready for game one. But since we haven't heard anything suggesting he won't be ready, we'll assume he's tendered a contract, hazed for not protecting his boyz, and returns to right field at least part-time—even if he has to be wheeled out there each inning.

If we're looking at an outfield of Kelenic-Lewis-Haniger by the end of May, and just one of the names you're already familiar with can serve as the fourth outfielder, there isn't much room for anyone else. We won't anticipate, nor propose, notable outfield additions.

3. Catcher.

Catcher is another story and a little more complicated. After trading Austin Nola to San Diego, Seattle no longer has their version of J.T. Realmuto. With Cal Raleigh at least a half season out (probably more) and Tom Murphy missing the entire season and having yet to prove he can hit RHP's consistently (or at all), questions loom in Seattle's battery. Luis Torrens is the lone realistic internal alternative for regular duty should Murphy struggle. Torrens has hit the ball extremely hard, he's young, and should be able to improve behind the plate (and at it). But Murphy's presence is crucial, even if in a backing role. A veteran on a minor-league deal could fill in if he isn't a full-go out of spring, but if Seattle's eyein' a postseason berth, an upgrade might be necessary at some point. James McCann would be a nice early addition, but would that be overkill? We think the odds of the police being abolished are better, and to be clear, we're not talking about Sting, Stewart, and Andy. Maybe we should be. Regardless, we'll leave catcher alone for now, hope for the best, and assume a mid-season acquisition could be made if Raleigh's progress slows and time proves external help is really necessary.

4. The Pitching.

Seattle improvised about as well as was feasibly possible after losing Graveman to injury and Walker to trade. Logan Gilbert is in the same boat as Kelenic, and though he'll be with the club soon enough, there's still a need for another starter, with or without a 6-man rotation.

The bullpen was the biggest mess and was decimated first by injury, then my trade, and then by injury again. Though Sam Delaplane and Wyatt Mills are close, there's still a need for relievers with newly acquired Andrés Muñoz starting the season on the IL and a load of uncertainty with the health of others, such as Gerson Bautista, Brandon Brennan, Taylor Guilbeau, and Matt Magill. Justin Dunn might find himself in the bullpen before too long, and that would help, but relief pitching is still clearly the most glaring area of need at this moment.

 

So, with all of this weighed carefully, we're suggesting Seattle adds a starting pitcher, three relievers not currently with the organization, and a stopgap infielder to the active roster. Oh, they also need vegan catering from 'Quickie Too' in Tacoma. The catering is more important than a stopgap infielder, but don't let that downplay the potential usefulness of our suggestion.

With that said, we'll get to the transactions.  

 

First up, Team options...

1. Kendall Graveman, RHP; exercise (3.5million).

Graveman is likable and the option is affordable. Though his condition is a concern and any uncertainty could be a deal-breaker, he looked good in relief and retaining him would make shopping easier.

Second, players to be designated for assignment, non-tendered contracts, outrighted, or released...

1. Seth Frankoff, RHP.

2. Yoshihisa Hirano, RHP.

3. Walker Lockett, RHP.

4. Brady Lail, RHP.

5. Casey Sadler, RHP.

6. Matt Magill, RHP.

7. Nestor Cortes, LHP.

8. Joe Hudson, C.

9. Joseph Odom, C.

10. Phillip Ervin, OF.

11. José Marmolejos, 1B/DH

There simply isn't room for everyone. Most of these players are out of options, coming off notable injuries, arbitration-eligible, or simply not that good. In some many cases it's a combination of more than one flag. Perhaps Magill will stick around if he's expected to be healthy by spring, but we'll assume the worst and arrange a severance package, including a gift certificate for a free mustache-removal. The same courtesy will be offered to Sheffield, with or without the use of complementary restraints.

Moves like these are inevitable and necessary to accommodate Rule-5 eligible prospects as well as free agent additions. Speaking of which, here are the targets via Free Agency...

 

1. Taijuan Walker, RHP; 3 years, 46 million +option.

2. Trevor Rosenthal, RHP; 2 years, 16 million.

3. Trevor May, RHP; 2 years, 10 million +option.

4. Sean Doolittle, LHP; 1 year, 3 million +incentives +option.

5. Jake Lamb, 3B/1B; 2 million +incentives +option.

6. Steven Souza Jr., OF; minor-league deal +incentives.

Taijuan Walker was mature and polished in his second stint with Seattle. A third stint makes perfect sense, and though it will cost Seattle a lot more than a prorated 2 million dollar contract, he would be well worth it. Trevor Bauer has long seemed like a more feasible, nearly perfect target. but he has pitched himself into a qualifying offer and that doesn't seem like a necessary sacrifice right now as my second screwdriver disappears between sentences. His preference to pitch every fourth day would be troublesome as well. Seattle seems likely to continue with a 6-man rotation for 2021.

Former Cardinal closer Trevor Rosenthal had a rocky 2019 with Washington and Detroit, but rebounded respectably this year with KC. As a result he was dealt to San Diego at the deadline and looked like his old dominate self once again. Park factors can't be ignored, and the sample with SD is small, but the velocity and command are there, so we like the odds of him picking up where he left off. The bigger question is whether or not he'll get paid like dominant reliever.

Washington state native Trevor May has had a successful career to date as a late-innings reliever and his numbers in 2020 speak for themselves. Sean Doolittle is coming off an injury-shortened campaign in which he never really got rollin' (albeit small sample size), but his experience and ability to lead and mentor can't be overstated. He's working with Driveline this winter, so playing for Seattle wouldn't be completely inconvenient despite residing in DC.

Having names like these to help mentor a number of young hurlers while simultaneously absorbing the lion's share of the pressure could prove to be crucial. The fact that they have proven track records of dominance and (should) project well certainly doesn't hurt, either. Doolittle suffered an oblique strain, which might raise a flag for some, but he should be cleared well before the start of spring. We're anticipating a modest base salary for him with the hope that incentives can get the deal done. Same goes for the next target...

We've talked about Jake Lamb before. Like May, he's a local product. Unlike May, he battled a shoulder injury that led to surgery and a couple of unproductive seasons heading into 2020. Arizona finally cut him loose after sporadic use and shaming as the team bat-boy through August and Oakland quickly snatched him up. He immediately rewarded them with an outburst of offensive production and hasn't had to pick up his own bat since. Lamb could take first base against RHPs and slide into a bench role once White looks ready for another go at MLB pitching. If nothing else he would serve as depth and depth is good. Depth leads to winning. Winning baseball is good. Acarajé without shrimp is good. That's for Marc.

Steven Souza Jr., yet another Washingtonian, would also serve as depth. He tore up his knee about as bad as is possible in 2018, missed 2019, and didn't get much of an opportunity with Chicago this season. But a prosthetic limb wasn't necessary and he actually posted positive defensive stats in 39 innings of work, for whatever that's worth. That's good enough for us to warrant a non-roster invitation and a chance to find his swing in Tacoma, anyway.

Finally, Trades...

And payroll...

Seattle has roughly 55.5 million in committed salary, including buyouts and dead money. Factor in another 30m more with our suggestions, 6.5m or so for arbitration-eligible players, approximately 6m for pre-arb players and that would put payroll at 98 million, give or take a little. With no new budget-restrictive deals, extensions and splurging would still in play for 2022 and beyond.

With our targets identified, here's what the 26-man roster might look like at the end of April...

 

Lineup

1. Jarred Kelenic, LF/CF L

2. Dylan Moore, 2B

3. Kyle Lewis, CF/LF

4. Kyle Seager, 3B L

5. Ty France, DH/1B

6. Mitch Haniger, RF

7. Jake Lamb, 1B/DH L

8. Tom Murphy, C

9. JP Crawford, SS L

Bench: Luis Torrens, Tim Lopes, Braden Bishop, and Sam Haggerty.

Rotation

 

1. Marco Gonzales

2. Taijuan Walker

3. Justus Sheffield

4. Logan Gilbert

5. Yusei Kikuchi

6. Justin Dunn

Bullpen

1. Trevor Rosenthal CL

2. Trevor May

3. Kendall Graveman

4. Sean Doolittle L

5. Anthony Misiewicz L

6. Carl Edwards Jr.

7. Yohan Ramirez

Reserve pitchers: Joey Gerber, Nick Margevicius, Brandon Brennan, Sam Delaplane, Wyatt Mills*, Art Warren, Aaron Fletcher, Ljay Newsome, Ian Hamilton, Eric Swanson, and, if/when healthy, Andrés Muñoz, Taylor Guilbeau, and Gerson Bautista. The latter two, plus Edwards, are DFA candidates if their injuries prove to be extensive. They also happen to be active roster candidates if healthy.

*Mills may or may not be added to the 40.

Conclusion...

 

Seattle's still very much in the rebuilding process, but multitasking is now a possibility. Miami did it, Chicago did it... why not Seattle? Sure, there could be some regression from a few players and a little rust with guys like Haniger and Murphy. But with the payroll flexibility to address the glaring short-term weaknesses and several top prospects graduating & (hopefully) contributing, you don't have to squint too hard to see Seattle taking another, larger, step forward—right into the postseason. Or not. This is still about the long-term and the long-term shouldn't be compromised for a short-term gain. That means no rushing of prospects and no trades involving multi-tooled prospects for rentals. We'd also suggest that all players be in bed by nine and avoid soda & fast food. It's all about Mariners Care. We also care. We even care about you, though we care a little bit more about the pitching right now and you should, too.

Speaking of pitching, targeting three potential closers might seem like overkill for an offseason plan, and we might be over-killing the term overkill, but we're Motörhead fans as much as we are fans of the game and simply don't care how realistic/unrealistic landing all three would be. Doolittle might be the least likely to land in Seattle given how he struggled this season and finished the year on the IL, but Seattle can afford to take a little risk for a potentially high reward. Doolittle would also feed Dipoto's interest in former Oakland arms. Liam Hendriks is another reliever who has donned green and yellow who would be welcomed, but he would cost considerably more over a larger period of time. Spending heavily on a long-term deal for a reliever is probably even less likely than the proposals listed here. We could see a trade as well, rather than just free agent signings, but because any swaps we witness for relief help are unlikely to include top prospects, trying to identify potential targets is like trying to find humility in congress, or character in the Astros' organization.

Another thing to consider is that a 6-man rotation won't leave room for more than 7 relievers at a time on a 26-man active roster, so having players that can be optioned would be necessary without expanded rosters. Fortunately for Seattle, they're stacked with arms (if healthy) that can maintain dual residency and nearly all of them should get a look, however limited.

The path for some of the fielders is a little more complicated. Sometimes that path takes an extended detour through Tacoma as it has for Fraley and Bishop . The timeline varies from player to player (and pandemic to pandemic), but there are no roadblocks in this plan, so those on the fast-track and the scenic route alike would be able to earn promotions. For the record, we're hoping Evan White will force his way onto I-5 North by July. 

Though Seattle's rebuild hasn't gone perfectly according to plan, there have been more positives than were anticipated for this stage and that's exactly why postseason play may not be as far out as we believed. We still have our reservations, but it isn't hard to see how the right blend of veterans and youth could lead to modest improvement, and that might be all the difference that's needed to end the drought. That said, nobody should panic if 2021 doesn't end with a postseason berth. Development is still the priority and we make no apologies for sounding repetitive.

***

As usual, we ask that you read into our suggestions thoroughly (especially batting order) and place your bets accordingly. We'll hold your cash for a modest fee and make sure each and every dollar is accounted for at the end of the season, just e-mail us for deposit details.

Happy Offseason

 

Notes...

• Some of the players we suggested for removal of the 40 might be movable, but trying to identify trade targets required more thinking than we cared to think about, so we didn't give it much thought. Feel free to dream up your own returns and share them so we can mock you.

• Bringing in (mostly) stopgap veterans was the number one goal in this plan. The number two goal was to finish the plan.

• Our six-year streak of identifying at least one incoming player in our annual plan was snapped last offseason, but we called 2020 as the year it would end, so we at least deserve credit for that. By credit, we mean a quality hefeweizen. We're not into pale ales, thank you.

• Much credit is owed to the work of Shannon Drayer, Ryan Divish, Mike Curto, and Marc W (USSM). Follow them on social media, read their work, and buy them lunch (preferably at “Quickie Too”).

• We tagged Seattle for Mike Leake's 2021 buyout (5 million). We're not positive Seattle's actually responsible for that, but we're too lazy to find out (or care).

• E-mails are welcomed, comments via disqus are preferred. Create an account and weigh in, we dare you.

• The editing here is getting worse and it won't improve until someone new steps in to help, or at least until current staff members sober up.