Abscissions, Decisions: The 2025 HVH Deadline Plan
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| Mariners' surgical staff attempt to repair the cartilage in the right knee of Gregory Santos at T-Mobile's state-of-the-art medical facility. |
By Stevil, 14 July, 2025
Here we are in mid-July and the Mariners are once again clinging to life support. There's an argument to pull the plug, but with so many foolishly faithful fans desperate for a miracle, myself included, HVHH (the extra H is for 'hyperbole') is obliged to take advantage of the situation for self-promotion and humor—our humor. Make that HVHHH.
Seattle is actually just one piece away from being stable. That one piece would be a bullpen. Of course they could use another bat and starter as well, but relievers are indeed needed for second-half relief, and Seattle needs four of them.
Because getting four of them isn't realistic, we'll reduce that number and see if transplanting talent from the Mariners' minor league torso into other organizations might net them an arm and a leg. I mean arms and a bat.
1. Tai Peete, OF, and Teddy McGraw, RHP, to Miami; Ronny Henriquez, RHP, to Seattle.
Two top-20 prospects for a middle-innings reliever? Yeah, and it may not be enough, but we'll assume it is. Henríquez is exactly what Seattle needs: a reliever who can miss bats in any inning. Miami would be getting a project prosect with a high ceiling and a potential mid-rotation starter for the future.
2. Jared Sundstrom, OF, and Jimmy Joyce, RHP, to St. Louis; José Fermín, 3B/2B, to Seattle.
This will draw praise from many fans. That, or snark.
But Fermín is a lefty-swingin' third & second baseman who could platoon the hot corner with Williamson should Williamson struggle (again) facing RHPs, or step in for Young, if he struggles to adjust down the stretch. Normally, a career minor-leaguer with minimal MLB experience wouldn't be on the radar, but with so few options available, Williamson and Young making a case to play regularly, and taking into consideration the budget limitations in place and cost to acquire rentals, this seems like a risk-free move that wouldn't displace anyone deserving of PAs.
Fermín has a history of controlling the zone. With a higher BB% than K% in AAA (a sample size of 247 PAs), and a strong start since being recalled, the hit tool is there and he offers solid defense to boot. This would basically be an upgrade over Mastrobuoni.
3. Gregory Santos, RHP, and Casey Legumina, RHP, to Baltimore; Colin Selby, RHP, to Seattle.
Colin who, you ask? He's had somewhat of a breakout year in AAA, missing bats at a high rate (12.31 K/9 in AAA; 15.88 in MLB) and seems to be reserved for spot appearances in long-relief. He may very well be in Baltimore's plans for 2026, but given their need for pitching, perhaps a package of relievers would entice them to part with him. Santos won't likely pitch again this season, but Baltimore's focus should be 2026, anyway.
So, what's wrong with Selby?
His fastball is too centered and gets hit hard. But that's something Seattle might be able to tweak and Baltimore has had him throwing it much less, which has helped. The breaking stuff is solid.
Seattle is keen on under-the-radar types with a plus pitch and potential for a second. Selby and Henríquez fit the bill and should come at more affordable price than Jake Bird or David Bednar.
4. Jurrangelo Cijntje, SHP, Harry Ford, C, Brock Rodden, 2B, and Miles Mastrobuoni, INF, to Washington; MacKenzie Gore, LHP, to Seattle.
Raise your hand if you saw this one coming.
Cijntje is still likely a couple of years out. Ford isn't playing the outfield and he lacks the power ideal for a DH role. Utilizing him as just the backup catcher doesn't make a lot of sense, either. His greatest value is probably as a trade chip as a potential regular catcher for a team in need of one. Washington is a team in need of one.
The Nationals aren't close to contention, so moving Gore for a starting pitching prospect with top-end talent and a catcher who could feasibly take over full-time in 2026 makes plenty of sense (says me). Rodden is no throw-in, either. He could very well be their starting second baseman in 2027. He might be the most underrated Mariner prospect right now.
The number 56 and 79 prospects in baseball, plus a top-30 team prospect would be a pretty good haul, and yes, Seattle can afford this move. Having drafted Kade Anderson, their future rotation would be just as promising.
The lack of impact-bats, or even controllable contributors, is a large reason pitching should be the focus. Further, getting Gore would allow them to consider moving Castillo in the offseason without diminishing the quality of their rotation, and that would likely free up enough dough for them to get a free agent bat that could help with the lineup if needed. As a second-year arb-eligible player making under 3m this year, his raise should be perfectly affordable. An extension may not be out of the question, either.
These are deals that should move the needle more significantly than it probably appears in print. Seattle isn't likely going to go all-in with rentals. They seem to be banking on their top prospects filling most of the holes on the field. But tightening up with controllable players that could help beyond 2025 at an affordable cost makes plenty of sense, whether it involves these players, or others.
The procedures listed here for the acquisitions of Henriquez, Selby and Fermín would represent a case study for prospectomies, in which good--but not great--prospects are carefully removed and exchanged for established talent. Call it a baseball transplant. The swap for Gore falls under a different classification, but Seattle would retain 8 of their top-10 prospects (Young is still a prospect at the time of writing this), including each of their their top-4 and 6 of their top-7 before considering the newest draftees.
Here's what the roster would likely look like in August...
Lineup
1. JP Crawford, SS L
2. Julio Rodríguez, CF
3. Cal Raleigh, C S
4. Randy Arozarena, LF
5. Luke Raley, 1B L
6. Jorge Polanco, DH S
7. Dominic Canzone, RF L
8. Ben Williamson, 3B
9. Cole Young, 2B L
Bench: Mitch Garver, Dylan Moore, José Fermín, Donovan Solano.
Rotation
1. Logan Gilbert
2. MacKenzie Gore L
3. Bryan Woo
4. Luis Castillo
5. George Kirby
Bullpen
1. Andrés Muñoz CL
2. Matt Brash
3. Ronny Henriquez
4. Gabe Speier L
5. Trent Thornton
6. Eduard Bazardo
7. Carlos Vargas
8. Colin Selby
As fringe contenders our expectations should probably be tempered. Chances of surviving the regular season are probably 50-50. There is for hope, though, and we hope moves like these would take the team out of the experimental operating room and onto the stage. With a little luck (a lot of luck) and timely performances, things could get bloody...bloody interesting.
***
Notes
*On the season, Seattle has the fifth ranked offense in baseball. Over the last thirty days, the best. This is why I'm not terribly worried about postion player upgrades. Williamson, Young, Solano, Garver, Raley, Canzone, and Polanco—the players who have been the subject of replacement—have all been contributing and Robles is expected to return in September.
*On the season, Seattle has the twenty-fourth ranked bullpen in baseball. Over the last thirty days, the twentieth. This is why I'm more worried about the pitching than the hitting.
*I would rather have more experienced, proven veterans at first and third. I simply don't believe the difference would justify the cost, hence a focus on tightening up the bench. Worth noting, Tyler Locklear has been demolishing AAA pitching. There's no room for him at the moment, which also makes him a potential trade chip, but that's another reason splurging on a rental first baseman doesn't make a lot of sense.
*Any arguments based on Baseball Trade Values numbers will be dismissed and mocked.
*Trading 5 pitchers may seem like a stretch, but the 3 pitchers they would be acquiring come with 13 additional year of control.
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