Twas Three Nights Before Christmas...

 

Three 'gifts' representing Naylor, Ferrer, and Knizner. The tree is accounted for in payroll.

By HVH Staff, December 22nd, 2025.

Many fans have expressed disappointment over the lack of moves to date while simultaneously expressing excitement over the rumored interest in Brendan Donovan and Ketel Marte. More rumors will soon swirl and debates will be had, but there's a real possibility that we'll hear that the heavy lifting was done following the moves for Naylor, Ferrer, and now Refsnyder.

We've already heard that they believe they have a really good team as is. We've already heard how Colt Emerson will be given every opportunity to make the team out of spring, and soon we'll hear progress reports on other players, such as Cole Young, Luke Raley, Dominic Canzone, and Victor Robles. 

These are the kind of things we hear every year, but that doesn't mean they aren't meant to distract fans from the reality of their shortcomings or anticipated shortcomings. 

We've heard payroll is expected to start at 166 million. We've heard they'd like to add one more bat. They just signed Refsnyder and still say they'll pursue one more bat, but Seattle isn't going to spend money just for the sake of spending money, and to be fair, they shouldn't. 

What they should be doing is trying to field a World Series contender. Adding one more bat, regardless of who it is, wouldn't do that. If anyone begs to differ, take a look at the current depth chart.

When you look at these players individually for third base, second base, designated hitter, utility, and backup catcher, it's probably tempting to say "He isn't that bad" or "He probably won't play much, anyway". Maybe you'll even argue they're better than the options they started with last season. Some fans probably have every confidence in Emerson playing a position where he has almost no experience, never mind the limited PAs in AAA.

A World Series contender shouldn't have questions with the majority of their thirteen position players. If we're honest with ourselves, the only players really locked in are Raleigh, Naylor, Crawford, Arozarena, and Rodríguez, though we believe they can get solid production out of Robles, Canzone, and hopefully Refsnyder. We don't expect Seattle to field a team full of stars, few probably do, but they're limited on solid regulars and players with notable success, let alone stars. 

Then there's the bullpen. 

The actual depth chart on the MLB site lists just seven relievers, including Hancock, despite Seattle's front office having already stated that he would return to a starting role. They have five solid relievers and probably consider Vargas number six. That leaves a need for at least two more. 

The point is that there's still work to do and there are more question marks than we're comfortable with. This is a team that currently has less talent than the team they ended the season with. Fortunately, there's still plenty of time to add, but it feels like they put all their focus on Polanco and are now scrambling for the right alternative(s). Raise your hand if you thought Refsnyder was a targeted player.

Hopefully they'll do a lot more than just add a second baseman, but it would probably be wise to not have high expectations. Make that just expectations. Final thoughts on the roster won't be made until the end of spring, but the roster they head into spring with will be telling. 

For the record, we do have some reservations with the Refsnyder signing, though we generally like it. He's probably going to platoon DH with Canzone more often than play the outfield. Seattle announced the signing listing him as a first baseman as well. That's, well, a little surprising.

He wasn't good with RISP nor in high-leverage situations last year, but that may have been an outlier, and he'll likely face far fewer RHPs with the Mariners. He takes the role we argued for Andujar. 

Here's to hoping they can get Marte or Hoerner, a pair of RHRPs and then some! Even Herrera could still fit. 

On that note, boa noite.