Hardcore Improvisation Plan: Finding Jerry's Kids

By Stevil, November 23rd, 2018

Jerry Dipoto with Kyle Seager at a Muscular Dystrophy Charity Event. Contrary to popular belief, Little Kyle's decline is believed to be due to advanced complications of MD, rather than The Shift. Photo from drdannica.com

After carefully studying my offseason plan, Jerry Dipoto sent me a brief message via text: “Challenge accepted”. If anyone's curious, he's that guy who sends daily messages through Whatsapp and Viber, wishing you a wonderful day, praise/thank God, etc. 

Annoying. 

Anyway, within minutes, he turned to the media and abruptly threw the entire board of directors under the bus, suggesting they wouldn't be expanding payroll enough for the team to show Nelson Cruz the respect he deserves or realistically contend in 2019.

Wonderful.

So, the only real choice is to ditch anyone possible who doesn't figure into the long-term plans, hence the early dismissals of Vincent, Ramírez, Herrmann, Zunino, and Paxton, and try to be prepared for the long-term on a short-term setback. Are you following me?

Unfortunately, what was already a difficult challenge became worse following the allegations by former bikini/fitness model, Dr. Lorena Martin. Seattle took a page out of Rock Hudson's book and denied everything fiercely, but irreparable damage has been done, and regardless of whatever results MLB's investigation reveals (Spoiler Alert: nothing conclusive), Seattle may not be the most desirable location for solid, standard free agents. Not now, anyway.

Because of this ugly scenario, it's imperative that they trade for players and bring them to Seattle by force, or sign international players that don't understand a word of what's been said and can easily be manipulated. Both routes seem highly likely and wise.

With that said, here's a handful of ideas for exchanges and signings (some new, some old) that might fit the new criteria and induce conversation with little controversy...

Via Trade

 

1. Edwin Díaz, RHP, and Jean Segura, SS/2B, to Los Angeles Dodgers; Dustin May, RHP, Will Smith, C, Gavin Lux, SS, and Yadier Álvarez, RHP, to Seattle. 

Edwin Díaz is in demand. My proposal is setting the bar high for good reason. May, Smith, and Lux are all probably a year or two away from their debuts, but that fits the apparent timeline for the next relevant team in the Emerald City. Smaller pieces may need to be involved, but LA could afford to part with the names I've proposed and they would have one of the most dominant bullpens as a result and an immediate answer for second base without committing one of their utility players to full-time duty. Segura would have to waive his no-trade clause, but it's hard to envision him declining a chance to go to a World Series contender. 

In the return, Seattle would be potentially addressing four needs in one blow. May is a potential front-line starter with and Seattle has none of those on their farm—even after dealing Paxton to New York. So, landing May would be incredibly huge for the Mariners. Smith, though not as well-regarded as Ruiz, checks off all the necessary boxes for a starting catcher and I would argue he is the better catching prospect. Scouts don't seem to be as high on Gavin Lux as I am, but he's done about everything asked of him and would help with the Mariner-metamorphosis. As a left-handed bat, he would also help with lineup balance.

Álvarez is a right-handed slinger with a with a plus fastball and slider. He was once one of LA's top prospects, but has steadily dropped off due to control issues. He's almost certainly bound for relief duties, but much like Díaz, he might thrive there with less pressure to be consistent in shorter outings. Getting the walks down would help, but the likely boost in velocity upon a conversion should induce even more swings and misses. My hope would be that he could assert himself as the future closer.

Seattle sold low on Paxton and Zunino. They can't do that with Díaz. If the end up moving him they'll need to get away from the ready-now, high-floor approach and take a little more risk with players who have higher ceilings. I believe this package serves as a good example of how to do that if both teams were interested.

Alternative landing spots for Díaz might include Tampa (Franco and Honeywell in the return), Atlanta (Wright and Riley as centerpieces), and St. Louis (for Reyes, Hudson, Knizner, and Carlson). Those are my ideas, anyway.

2. Eric Filia, OF/1B, to Colorado; Josh Fuentes, 3B, to Seattle. 

Josh had my interest as a glove-first third baseman earlier in the year. Since then, he's shown the potential to hit for average and add some pop in MLB. He had some flaws that I felt could be exposed without some adjustments, but he never stopped hitting in AAA and ended up being the PCL MVP. Josh had a high Swg% for a guy who didn't attack first pitches often. He doesn't walk much either, and he profiles as an odd, semi-contact hitter with power. But one of the pleasant improvements was an noticeable drop in his kS% (14.4).  

Despite a shiny batting line, he was in a hitter-friendly park in a hitter-friendly league and doesn't project to be a great hitter. But to his credit, he also performed well in a pitcher-friendly league in 2017. He could stand to tighten up, but I wonder if the adjustments could be made at he MLB level. I'm bringing this up because he's Rule 5 eligible and hasn't been added to the Rockies 40 yet. He's a first cousin of Nolan Arenado, who ironically is blocking him. Arenado will be a free agent after next season, so Colorado may want to hang on to Fuentes. But I would imagine they would like to extend Nolan and they have Hampson ready-now, Rodgers in AAA and Welker another year or two out.  

Fuentes won't be a Rule 5 pick. He was added to the 40. He might end up with a brief look due to injury at some point. But maybe he should be a trade acquisition—fast—and given every opportunity to cut it in Seattle? He can also play 1B, though he's an elite—yes, elite—defender at 3B.

Acquiring Fuentes would give Seattle a near-ready or ready-now alternative to Seager, and I'm starting to believe Seager might be moveable. Fuentes could be the future at 3B at a low-cost, and if 2019 is a year to develop and experiment, he might be the perfect target.

Colorado's biggest needs stick out like a sore thumb: outfield and catcher. Seattle can't help them immediately in either area, but Eric Filia should interest them. Eric is a corner outfielder who can handle first base. He controls the zone exceptionally well, though he lacks the power that traditionally comes from those positions, profiling similarly to Ben Gamel. But given Colorado's thin supply of outfield depth, he makes plenty of sense as a return for Fuentes in what could be categorized as a swap for needs from areas of strength.

In the event that Filia were to fail another physical, Chuck Taylor and a relief prospect could serve as an alternative. Regardless, getting a deal done shouldn't be difficult.

3. Kyle Seager, 3B, and Mike Leake, RHP, to San Diego; Wil Myers, 1B/OF, and Austin Hedges, C, to Seattle.  

Kyle Seager's contract is widely considered albatross after his 2018. Any value he had went down the drain. The only way he could be moved would be in a bad contract swap and Wil Myers fits the profile.  

Some of Seager's issues from 2018 could be pinned on his broken toe, but unless he finally figures out how to beat the shift, it's hard to envision him returning to 2016-form. Still, with his defense alone in an extreme pitcher-friendly park, it isn't hard to see him offering the Padres more than what Myers can do as a third wheel. Their salaries would almost perfectly offset, so this would be a classic bad contract swap.  

Austin Hedges is a defense-first backstop with four years of control. He's done little with the bat to date, but he's made improvement each year and he wouldn't have to do much more to be among the elite catchers in the game. He would address an immediate need behind the plate which is vital with a fresh crop of arms integrating into the fold.  

Mike Leake would give San Diego a much-needed innings-eater at a reasonable price, as the salary relief from St. Louis would be going with him. Though the same argument goes for Seattle, this would open up an opportunity for a prospect like Swanson who has similar potential. 

The question for Seattle would be where to use Myers. With his experience at first base and in the outfield corners, he would probably be best served as a role player in a rotation between LF, 1B, and DH, though I wouldn't be opposed to a third base experiment if Fuentes proved to need more minor-league seasoning.  

A little extra dough could even go along with Seager to help offset the difference in 2019, though San Diego doesn't appear to be hard-pressed for savings given there lack of current commitments.

4. Ryon Healy, 1B/DH, to Kansas City; Richard Lovelady, LHP, to Seattle.

Rumors surfaced last season that the Royals were interested in Ryon Healy. I proposed a deal for Daniel Vogelbach. My initial proposal between the two clubs didn't feel like a stretch (still doesn't), because Jerry seemed bent on running with Healy.

But Jerry doesn't seem to be bent on sticking with Healy any longer and he may actually be willing to give Vogelbach the look he deserved before Healy was acquired. So, this is a simple swap of a power-hitter who may still be fixable for a left-handed relief pitcher who won't need a nickname.

Lovelady has done everything asked of him in the minors and comes with full control. There's an argument that KC should hang on to him, but they will likely need a few more years before having a real shot at contention and have several other interesting southpaws in their system. So, using him to net power at a position with a glaring hole shouldn't be out of the question.

5. Alex Colomé, RHP, Juan Nicasio, RHP, and 8 million to St. Louis; Dakota Hudson, RHP, to Seattle.

Hudson comes with his share of questions. He's failed to miss bats the way St. Louis has likely hoped, possibly due to a lack of deception or pitch selection. Possibly both, or something related to neither. But he has an outstanding fastball and cutter complemented by a decent changeup and curve that he's fine tuning. Though he hasn't missed a lot of bats, there's a lot of movement on his pitches and he induces a ton of ground balls. He throws downhill from his 6'5” frame and the velocity's there, so he may be a small adjustment away from really dominating. Nathon Eovaldi might be a solid case study with the blueprint of how to help him take another step forward as he endured similar issues before getting things straightened out in Tampa.

Scouts seem to believe he's destined for relief duties and that's exactly how St. Louis used him last season. I see him as a Frankenstein version Mike Leake with a very real possibility of being a front-line starter, but worst case, he could serve as a solid swing-man.

Colomé has two years of control and has proven himself as a dominant, late-innings reliever who can setup or close. That's exactly what St. Louis needs, and though Hudson would be a high price to address that need, they have the starting pitching depth to get away with that. Juan Nicasio, whom they're already familiar with, is a strong candidate for a rebound and could bolster their bullpen even further. 

With salary relief going along with Juan and Alex, there would be little risk for the Cardinals. A prospect, such as Jack Anderson, could go with them if necessary.

6. Dee Gordon, 2B/SS, and 10 million (2019-2020) to Minnesota; Jorge Alcala, RHP, to Seattle.  

Gordon needs more seasoning before making his MLB debut and I can think of few better immediate answers than Gordon. As a stop-gap for Gordon, Gordon would make a fine mentor for Gordon and bridge the gap between 2019 and Gordon's arrival. With his positional flexibility, Gordon could then potentially play SS or 2B, though the same applies to Gordon. Perhaps more importantly, Gordon's speed and defense could help the Twins contend for a Wild Card at a reasonable price with or without Gordon.  

Alcala is a right-handed power-arm with a killer fastball and a slider that flashes plus potential. He has a decent curve and changeup, but they're a work in progress and the belief seems to be that he'll end up in the bullpen with the potential to soak up innings, or even close. 

If he is able to stick in the rotation, great! But there's plenty of attraction to him as a reliever as well. The Gordon experiment in Seattle failed, and though it wouldn't be the end of the world to give him a shot at redemption and re-establish value, he clearly doesn't fit into the long-term plans, so moving him now might be in Seattle's best interests.

Via International Front If Posted

1. Yoshitomo Tsutsugo , OF; 6 years, 24 million +incentives. 

My interest in international players remains strong, though I didn't realize Po-Jung Wang would be subjected to signing bonus restrictions. Since the Mariners have virtually nothing in the IBP piggy bank, an alternative would likely be necessary and Yoshitomo fits the bill. As a left-handed hitting corner outfielder with experience at the hot corner and first base, there's an argument that he was the better fit from the beginning. He's certainly the safer bet, but he'll also earn a lot more and cutting corners seemed to be a requisite.  

Yoshitomo isn't known for his defense, but he is known for his power and leadership, and his .989 OPS last season speaks volumes about his ability. No translator is needed for that.

2. Tetsuto Yamada, 2B, Japan; 6 years, 24 million, +incentives. 

Tetsuto Yamada checks all the boxes. Though scouts seem to question whether or not his power will translate, he's still an athletic player who controls the zone offering solid defense to boot. While second base doesn't appear to be a pressing area of need, I would argue it's still a need as Canó will probably be more useful in a rotation between DH, second base and first base when the team is truly a threat to contend. Getting him that experience now could prove crucial and Dee Gordon is a lock to get moved well before then.  

Yamada is arguably worth a lot more than the 4 million AAV I'm now proposing, which is up from the previous proposal I made of 18 million over 6 years (plus incentives). But my guess is that teams would want to see how he adapts to MLB pitching first and the Mariners wouldn't be an exception. If he makes a smooth transition, the incentives could boost his salary to that of a comparable player.


3. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP; 6 years, 60 million. 

I've said about everything that could be said about Kikuchi already. Though his velocity was down a tick last season, he's still very much a dominant pitcher with front-line potential. With Paxton being shipped off for a weak haul of prospects, Kikuchi would be a welcomed addition and potential core piece moving forward.

4. Kodai Senga, RHP; 6 years, 24 million +incentives. 

Takahiro Norimoto is under contract for one more year, so MLB will have to be patient a little longer. But that doesn't mean there aren't any solid alternatives and Kodai might be one of them, as he has expressed interest in playing in MLB and is expected to request to be posted.  

With a knack for missing bats, he throws a mid-90's fastball along with a nasty forkball and a decent slider. There's little reason to think he can't handle a starting gig in MLB, but even if he ended up in the bullpen, he could prove to be a valuable asset. Don't let Makita's experience this season deter you.

Summary; End Notes

Yes, I'm proposing 6-year deals for each international player. It's unlikely that everyone (or anyone) would get a 6-year deal, but the idea is to maintain the same control as you would with a prospect at a fixed rate, so that in a worst case scenario, losses would be affordable while the potential rewards would be significant. That said, four-year deals would be more likely and I really wouldn't have a problem with that. 

Make no mistake, I have no illusions of Seattle winning in 2019 or 2020 without Paxton, Cruz, Segura, Díaz, or Colomé. But getting younger and shedding payroll should help for a more promising future. Other moves would be necessary, as would free agent signings (including stop-gaps for 2019-2020), but having payroll flexibility and most of the key holes addressed with a potential answer for 2021 would be a step in the right direction. Easier said than done, but that's the challenge Jerry Dipoto appears to be facing. For what it's worth, it should be a little less stressful with a couple of years of no real pressure.

Here's a look at the projected active roster options for 2021 following these proposals... 

Outfielders: Haniger, Lewis, Tsutsugo, Myers, Fraley, Bishop, Gamel, Thompson-Williams, and Smith. 

Infielders: White, Yamada, Lux, Canó, and Fuentes. 

Catchers: Hedges and Smith, and Raleigh*. 

Starting Pitchers: May, Kikuchi, Gonzales, Sheffield, Hudson, Senga, Gilbert*, LeBlanc, and Swanson. 

Relief Pitchers: Álvarez, Alcala, Gerber*, Mills, Warren, Festa, Lovelady, Pazos, Armstrong, Povse, and Tuivailala.

* Players possibly a little further out. 

Some of these guys will end up as trade chips. Some would be optioned, and some may be non-tendered or cut loose for a variety of reasons, but there would be a decent pool of talent to work with.

The infield depth would remain thin and a reserve shortstop/utility player would still be needed at a minimum, but there should be few concerns given the likely financial flexibility at that point. 

Jerry should have his kids for the future. He might even use the Rule-5 Draft to give one special little tike a glimmer of hope.

Payroll would project to be around 115 million in 2019 without stop-gaps or salary relief for San Diego factored into the mix. There would be little beyond the contracts for Canó and Myers in 2021.

Perfect, right?

On that note, I'll hold out hope for the best down the road while I struggle to get a few more of these bitter pills down my throat trying to pass time.