The Hardball via Hardcore Pre-Spring State of the Mariners Address

By Stevil, January 25th, 2019

Unsuspecting Shohei Ohtani just seconds before getting smacked across the head by his childhood hero, Ichiro, for choosing LA over Seattle. Photo from Japan Times.

 

Seattle entered the 2019 offseason with two real choices: Push in the chips and go for it, or bail out and sell-high; ditch salary. Jerry chose the latter. There was technically a third choice, standing pat, but thankfully, that was never really considered--and you can thank yours truly. If you think Hardball via Hardcore hasn't had a direct impact on Seattle's decision making, you are sorely mistaken. We wouldn't have been banned and barred from all Mariner facilities, otherwise.

As a result of the chosen direction, the farm system has improved drastically in way of outfield and starting pitching prospects, and payroll commitments beyond 2020 have been reduced to rubble. Many more veterans will be shipped off when/if there's a market for them, so there may be further savings before we get too far into the future.

Orchestrating a rebuild on the fly isn't an easy task, but that's exactly what we've seen, and overall I think it's fair to say that Seattle has done well to put themselves in a better position for the future. But there are some glaring needs that still need to be addressed, and while they should have the dough to find help via free agency when the time comes, finding prospects to serve as potential pre-arb solutions is more desirable. Worst case, there would be depth, which is a trend among contending clubs. Where Seattle needs depth is crystal-clear: the infield and catcher. 

Reeling in JP Crawford and shedding Josh to add Shed gave Seattle a couple of much needed lefty-hitting middle-infielders. But that's pretty much all they have for the upper-minors, unless you think Donnie Walton is promising (he kind of is), and both come with flags. Finding more middle-infielders is essential. Finding third base and catching prospects is crucial.

The problem is, Seattle doesn't have many chips left to work with, and, no, Mitch Haniger shouldn't be traded. Seattle will need veterans to lead the new core and he may be the only seasoned Mariner left by the start of 2022. So, Jerry will have to get even more creative in finding more deals via trade.

I have a handful of ideas...


Josh Fuentes, 3B/1B.

I've written about Josh Fuentes ad nauseam here at HvH and while trolling other baseball sites--and I'll continue to do so until he's traded. He's one of the most under-rated and under-appreciated third base prospects in baseball, and he has no clear path to the majors with Colorado. They signed Daniel Murphy to take first base, they still have Nolan Arenado for at least another year, Colton Welker being groomed to replace Arenado, plus Grant Lavigne and Tyler Nevin as promising corner-infield options for the future. What they don't have are outfielders and catchers, so I still believe that a swap involving Eric Filia, and maybe some change, would make sense. Even Jay Bruce could do the trick if he rebounds from an injury-plagued 2018 and Seattle eats a little dough.


Luis Guillorme, 3B/SS/2B.

Luis isn't just a shortstop, he's a second baseman as well. He bats left-handed and put up an impressive .304/.380/.417 line in AAA last season, which was an improvement from a .283/.376/.331 line in AA in 2017. He's a true contact-hitter, but he gets his walks, doesn't strike out much (more walks than K's in 2017; 30/39 in 2018), and doesn't chase outside pitches (much). He absolutely controls the zone for a contact hitter--better than most non-contact hitters. He doesn't have the exit velocity or launch angle (yet) that you'd like to see, though that doesn't concern me too much given the fact that power really isn't his game.

What really impresses me the most is his defense. Search for clips of him in the field and you'll likely feel the same. He might be one of the most underrated middle-infielders in the upper-minors and there's an argument that he's ready for his shot right now. The reports on him are glowing (defensively) and I don't know if there's a prospect that better fits the profile of what Jerry's looking for.

So, how might Seattle nab him?

Luis is almost certainly ahead of Cecchini on NY's depth chart at shortstop, but Cecchini is a perfectly capable reserve. The Mets also have Gimenez in the upper-minors, plus Vientos, Mauricio, and Newton in the lower-minors. Guerrero and Carpio will be worth watching as well. Point is, they aren't short on SS prospects. They could afford to part with him, Seattle just has to have what New York needs.

What New York needs is another starter to potentially replace Jason Vargas. If they were interested in Mike Leake, and if he was willing to waive his no-trade clause, there would seemingly be a match. Seattle would have to forward the incoming dough from St. Louis and would likely have to take Vargas in the return, but Jerry's already shown that he's willing to eat salary in the short term in order to gain pieces (and financial flexibility) for the long term.

The Mets could also use mid-relievers, both ready-now and near-ready. Seattle doesn't have much to offer in that department, but I wonder if they might bite on Sam Tuivailala.

Sam is out of options and barely got his feet wet in Seattle before the injury. Jerry might prefer to see how he rebounds before dangling him, and there's an argument that he's more valuable than Guillorme right now, so this might be a deal that is more likely to happen closer to the deadline (if at all). This is all wild speculation, of course, but it shouldn't be hard to see the potential fit.

With his positional flexibility, you're looking at a solid utility player in a worst-case scenario.


Nick Solak, 2B/OF.

Nick is one of many infield prospects in a flush Tampa system. He'll need to be added to the 40-man roster following the 2019 season and there currently isn't any room for him. Tampa's dilemma could be Seattle's good fortune.

Nick offers better defense at second than Long, but his ability to cover an outfield corner, or even center, could go far in helping Seattle get the right matchups when needed once they're back in the race for contention. 

After batting .282/.384/.450 in AA with 19 dingers, he should start this season in AAA. Though his GB% remains high, he did manage to cut it to a career-low (52.2%) and got more balls airborne than he had previously while showing more plate discipline and making pitchers work harder (4.06 P/PA).

So, how could Seattle get him?

Tampa is pretty well set with pitchers and infielders, but lack outfielders. Heredia and McCarthy are their immediate reserves, but Sanchez is the only other outfielder relatively close. They could use a boost in that department.

The same names cited as chips to acquire Fuentes apply here, but Tampa's always had interest in odd arms. Seattle would likely have to package at least a couple of players together, perhaps an outfielder with a pitching project, but if there's a fair exchange possible, there's little doubt the two clubs could get it worked out.


David Bote, 3B/SS/2B/OF.

In case you, the reader, haven't picked up on the trend here, virtually every infielder targeted is blocked in their respective organization. David Bote is no exception. David Bote is also the one with perhaps the most promising offensive potential.

Bote has been a human yo-yo with the Cubs organization, used as filler each and every time there was a need due to injury or promotion. He did a little bit of everything right, and handled the constant shuffling well, but never did much to truly impress.

When you look at his numbers on the surface, you probably won't be impressed much, either. But perhaps you'll notice an increase in his power numbers last season?

Bote hits the ball with authority. Though he didn't see much time with the Cubs last season, he recorded an average exit velocity of 93.5. That's Nelson Cruz territory. So, what's been the problem?

Yandy Díaz Syndrome. I'll explain...

Bote was putting far too many balls on the ground. In 2017, he posted a 52.7% GB rate. But last season he managed to cut that to 45.1% and increase his LD rate from 13% in 2017 to 16.8% last season in AAA. 

There's more swing-and-miss in his game than I care for, and his contact numbers barely make the acceptable cut. But he could be on the cusp of a true break-out if he can tighten up a little more and he's looking more and more like a true third baseman, though he can play the entire infield and the outfield corners. 

In some regards, he reminds me of Ryon Healy. But he offers better defense at a more critical position and could be a legitimate utility player, if not a regular, which is another thing these infielders I'm targeting have in common: positional flexibility.

Bote is obviously blocked by Kris Bryant. He's probably blocked by Ian Happ as well. The Cubs might prefer to hang on to him and see if he can build upon his 2018, but he's the kind of lottery ticket the Mariners should be trying to acquire. If they could get him for a legitimate relief prospect, such as Art Warren, I think both teams will have done well. 


Reese McGuire, C.

Reese, a Washington State product, was Pittsburgh's first round pick in the 2013 draft. Eventually traded with another prospect and Francisco Liriano for Drew Hutchison as part of a salary dump, Reese has slowly emerged since then as one of the better defensive backstops in the upper-minors.

He's blocked from a starting role by Danny Jansen, and Luke Maile has established himself as one of the better backups in the game, posting elite framing numbers and a respectable batting line in 2018. It's certainly possible that Toronto has more interest in pairing Jansen with McGuire rather than with Maile, in which case I would be interested in Maile, but it would arguably be a luxury for Toronto and they're in need of help elsewhere. 

Reese finally came alive with the bat in 2017, then regressed last season in AAA. He probably needs another full year of seasoning, and he'll probably never be a great hitter, but the defense is real and the offensive bar is low. I have little doubt that he can cut it as a regular. 

To acquire McGuire (fun writing that), Seattle would probably have to send David Freitas to give Toronto a ready-now reserve. But the centerpiece in a deal would probably have to be an outfielder (think DTW or Jake Fraley), or perhaps a 1B/OF hybrid, such as Joey Curletta, if he's able to continue mashing as he did in AA last season. 

 
Garrett Stubbs, C.

Inner-division trades are rare and frowned upon by most GM's, but Jerry has ignored the unwritten rules and cut deals with "rivals" each offseason since landing in Seattle. So, why not try one with Houston?

Garrett Stubbs is relatively small for a catcher and there are questions concerning his physical ability to sustain the grind of a long season. But when he's fresh, he's great, offering solid PA's and above-average defense. He's probably best served in a backup role, but he's ready to start contributing immediately.

The obvious return here is Edwin Encarnación. And the parrot.

Seattle would have to eat much, or most, of his salary, and may have to wait til the deadline to get a deal done. But it isn't hard to envision a swap with Houston, especially if they land Realmuto, and if they were seriously interested in Nelson Cruz, there should be at least some interest in EE.


These may not be the most exciting prospects for most fans, but they're all realistic options with the potential to add real value. Seattle won't be dependent on just prospects, though, and could just as easily buy the help they need via free agency in the coming years. It's simply too early to speculate much over free agent signings two years from now.

To be clear, this is more about identifying players that fit than it is about specific proposals. Sometimes it's obvious what a team needs. Sometimes a team snubs those needs and zeros in on someone completely unexpected. In the end, it doesn't matter as long as both clubs get who they want.

Seattle doesn't have to find everything still on the shopping list this year, but being prepared ahead of schedule can help assure that window for contention opens within that loose timeline--possibly even a little early. 

That said, this season will kick off with multiple veterans looking to rebound and re-establish value while the first wave of prospects continue their development and eventually start integrating into the fold. 

2019 will require some patience, but that doesn't mean it can't or won't be fun.





Oh, yeah...

There's one other important thing deserving attention: Edgar's entry into the Hall of Fame. It's been a long time coming and it's a relief for myself and the staff to finally see justice for the Seattle legend. Never mind that we all had bets on the BBWAA formally snubbing him for the tenth time. That's what we get for hiring Pete Rose as an investment advisor.