A Detailed Guide to Understanding the Blueprint and Timeline of Jerry Dipoto's Imagination

  By Stevil, March 5th, 2019

 

New Mariners hitting instructor Tim Laker explaining the fundamentals with young Jarred Kelenic.

 

This season, as well as the 2020 season, will be about rebounds, development and assessment; taking steps forward. It will likely be a few years before we see the likes of Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez, but that doesn't mean this "step back" is going to be an enduring endeavor. This isn't a traditional rebuild by any stretch of the imagination and more notable external pieces could be added in short order.

We've already given you a short overview of what has happened. Now we'd like to give you a more in-depth look at what will and could happen, and half the fun is speculating over the possibilities--none more so than with household names who might find themselves in Mariner-blue. We'll do our best to lay everything out on the timeline in the most confusing manner.


So, when might we start seeing significant additions?

We already have and you already knew that. I'll assume you already knew that. If not, Yusei Kikuchi says hello. But one look at payroll for 2020-2022, and a quick glimpse at the free agent classes over the next couple of years helps paint the picture in which Jerry Dipoto already has the frame. When you factor in the projected graduation dates of top prospects, the image starts to become clearer.

Because notable salary comes off the books following the 2019 season and ridiculous financial flexibility, or "stupid" money, should be available following the 2020 season, Seattle's poised well to address any remaining or projected needs moving forward. Perhaps it isn't a coincidence that this freedom comes as many great free agents hit the market and some of Seattle's best prospects are due to debut. We should see more significant additions in 2020 and each year following.


But where might we see these additions?
 
Seattle is stacked with outfield prospects and their current cast of grass-obsessed fielders isn't too shabby, either. The same could be said of the rotation, which should be showcasing some of the new acquisitions this coming season. That likely means we won't see any significant additions to either area for the time being outside of the draft. First base is another area that should remain unmolested, as Evan White should get every opportunity to own the position come 2020 or 2021.

The rest of the infield, bullpen, and catching are another story. There's little in the minors to supplant the veterans on short-term residency permits. JP Crawford and Shed Long are about it for the infield apart from first base, and Long might be best served in a utility role. Matt Festa, Art Warren, Joey Gerber, and Wyatt Mills could all prove to be solid relievers, but Warren's durability is still a huge question mark and there will be a notable lack of late-inning experience once Anthony Swarzak is traded or plays out his contract.

The catching situation is even more dire as David Freitas is the current backup to the regular who should be a backup, Omar Narvaez. The lone, legitimate alternative not acquired as a minor-league free agent in the upper-minors is Joe DeCarlo.


So, what does payroll look like?

Right now, Seattle's on the hook for just over 140 million. But Encarnación and Swarzak (well, and Félix) will be off the books following the season, if not before then. Kyle Seager isn't likely going anywhere due to the absurdity in his back-loaded deal, but it isn't crippling. Mike Leake, Dee Gordon, and Jay Bruce each have two years left, and all of them will be trade candidates. Payroll in 2020 is just shy of 89 million committed with LeBlanc, and 2021 currently stands over 45 million without LeBlanc. Incoming and outgoing dough has been factored in, arbitration-eligible and pre-arb players have not. Trades would likely change these figures, but that's where Seattle's at as of now.

So, this is arguably a worst-case scenario. I would be surprised if Gordon sticks around that long and Leake is as good as gone himself if he's willing to waive his no-trade clause. I'm actually kind of hopeful Bruce stays, but if he's able to net any kind of return, I would anticipate him being moved as well. In fact, he might be the most moveable of the lot.


What might Seattle be able to spend in the 2020 offseason?

Let's assume only Gordon is moved without any salary eaten. Commitments are roughly 75 million with Gordon factored out, so Seattle should be able to add 50-55 million, give or take, as payroll would still be reasonable even with the arbitration-eligible and pre-arb players factored in. To be clear, we're using the HVH definition of reasonable.

Though a lot can and will change before hand, some potential targets for the 2020 offseason could/should be Yasmani Grandal, Xander Bogaerts, and Will Smith. These players should be of interest because the markets for elite catchers, middle-infielders and late-inning relievers aren't particularly flush with options over the next couple of years.


Sounds good, but what does that do to and for Seattle?
 
With this kind of spending, Seattle's 2020 payroll would likely be between 140-145 million to start with everything factored in. That isn't chump change--especially for a rebuilding club--but it isn't restrictive, either, and it could open the window for contention early. Suddenly, the roster would be tightening up, and with the next wave of hopeful prospects integrating, the remaining work could be minute. I can't stress enough how much the prospects play a huge part in all of this even if only as depth.

And about those prospects...

The first round of key prospects includes Justus Sheffield, Eric Swanson, Matt Festa, JP Crawford, Shed Long, and Braden Bishop. There are a couple of wildcards as well, such as Dylan Moore and Joey Curletta. Those are names who could see plenty of action in 2019.

Right behind them in the second wave are Evan White, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, Dom Thompson-Williams, Justin Dunn, Art Warren, and Wyatt Mills, who could all make their debuts at some point in 2020. The next round *could* feature Logan Gilbert, Joey Gerber, and possibly Cal Raleigh as early as 2021. In 2022, if things go well, Sam Carlson, Jarred Kelenic, and Julio Rodriguez could be making the leap. It's pointless to go any further than that.

The success of prospects in each wave will dictate other moves. Some will be used as trade-bait, others as reserves and depth. A select few will find themselves in regular roles, but timing is everything, as some current players and future free agent signings ideally should expire as successful, home-grown players are ripe for debuts or extensions.

This can get confusing real quick, but if you're following, Seattle's active roster heading into 2020 could look something like this...

Rotation: Kikuchi, Gonzales, Leake or Swanson, Sheffield, and LeBlanc. 
Bullpen: Strickland, Smith, Armstrong, Elias, Tuivailala, Rosscup, Warren, and Festa.
Catcher: Grandal and Narvaez.
Infield: White, Seager, Crawford, Bogaerts, Bruce, Vogelbach, and Long.
Outfield: Haniger, Smith, Santana, and Bishop.

Yes, that's 26 players. I'm anticipating roster expansion being in place at that point. Regardless, here we see the beginning of an interesting team coming together. The bullpen has the most questions and could prove to be the most volatile, but there would be internal alternatives and external options would remain a strong possibility.

Adding more infield help could go a long way towards strengthening the team on the field and creating more depth. I'm still strongly interested in players like Josh Fuentes and David Bote, for example, but free agency, again, should have potential answers where Jerry isn't able to add via trade. Bogaerts could afford Scott Servais a number of different options, as Seager, Crawford, Long, and Bogaerts can all play at least two positions.

With Justin Dunn and Eric Swanson needing a look, starting pitching isn't as pressing in 2020, barring injury, but with the lack of a true ace or solid number one starter, investing in a proven ace might be money well spent before too long.

That brings us to the 2021 offseason.

Some possible free agent targets at that point could be deGrom, Tetsuto Yamada (depending on status) or César Hernández, and Blake Treinen. Keep in mind, Kyle Seager will be off the books in 2022, so adding yet another infielder would likely have to happen sooner, rather than later anyway. 


Okay, what might payroll and the roster look like at that stage?

With the previous suggestions for the 2020 offseason, committed salaries would likely total  97 million for 2021. The kicker: arbitration-eligible players. Seattle has 11 players currently under control who will be arbitration-eligible, and a handful could be expensive. We could see a total between 40-50 million easily--and that doesn't include the pre-arb players. That might present a problem.

But there's the possibility, to put it lightly, that Domingo Santana, Mallex Smith, Hunter Strickland, and Sam Tuivailala would be traded before then (or even non-tendered), in which the returns could potentially thicken a future wave of prospects while reducing payroll. Makes sense, doesn't it?

The beauty of depth and having the luxury of time is that you can get a better look at what you have in upcoming players before making a decision, which allows you a unique kind of approach towards roster maintenance and construction. For example, a semi-experienced Lewis could replace Santana; Fraley or Bishop could replace Smith, and Mills or Warren, or even Gerber, could replace Strickland after each of them have had their cup of coffee. It goes without saying that there are no guarantees, but this kind of insurance is exactly what you want to create.

Let's assume Santana, Strickland, LeBlanc, and Tui are gone (though I wouldn't be opposed to an extension for Santana). The total commitment could reach 175-185 million, which would be the peak (payroll commitments drop significantly in 2022), and this is what fans would have...

Rotation: deGrom, Kikuchi, Gonzales, Dunn, and Sheffield (not necessarily in that order).
Bullpen: Treinen, Smith, Mills, Festa, Warren, Swanson, Rosscup, and Elias.
Catching: Grandal and Narvaez.
Infield: White, Yamada, Seager, Crawford, Bogaerts, Long, and Vogelbach.
Outfield: Haniger, Smith, Lewis, and Bishop.

If you're unconvinced that the back-end of the bullpen would be strong enough, you're not alone. But that wouldn't likely be difficult to address if necessary and there isn't much room to gripe anywhere else. That is a pretty strong roster from top to bottom, though surely there will be a number of unexpected subtractions and additions. They could stick with players under control and simply not add as well. There are multiple options/possibilities on the table.

But the key to all of this is the depth, which is a byproduct by design. There are prospects with options at most positions and more are sure to be added via trade and free agent signings (minor and major leagues) over the next couple of years. Some draft picks might even find their way into the conversation.


You're following, but this feels like a stretch.

The free agents named are highly speculative, no question. Much could change well before then and the odds are that few--if any--of the aforementioned will end up in Seattle. Many other names will come and go and a number of other changes could occur due to injury, trade, logistics, or even poor choice of tweets.

The point is that Seattle will have the financial resources to address needs through free agency without blocking any significant prospects and still have the dough for necessary extensions (think Mitch Haniger). Jerry hasn't just re-imagined the roster, he has set a specific course to get Seattle where it's never been. Seattle has never conducted a true rebuild, so this is uncharted territory, but the path and goals are clear and the timeline is shorter than what you would expect from a traditional rebuild.


And about 2022 and beyond.

Kikuchi's 14.5 million option is considered a guaranteed salary and the only one in the books for 2022. With the proposals laid out above, payroll would be likely just be over 100 million without arbitration-eligible or pre-arb salaries, notably those of Haniger and Gonzales. But the total of those arb and pre-arb salaries would be considerably lower than what we might see in 2020, so there would be plenty of room to go out and reel in more help, whether by free agency, or absorbing contracts via trade. With Kelenic, Rodriguez, and Carlson all possibly contributing at that point, the team could once again be getting boosts from two different fronts.


How could this be summarized?

This rebuilding phase gives Seattle significant choice and flexibility moving forward. They can go considerably young in 2021, or run with a mix of veterans and youth. Where prospects fail, money can offer a solution. It's a careful dance between internal promotions, extensions, external additions, and subtractions, but there is balance that should allow for a fluid transition into contention with significant gains being made each year moving forward. No more treading water, the Mariners have made the decision to sink or swim. The odds suggest the former is more likely, and with any luck, we'll see postseason baseball and a trip to the World Series as a result.