Hardball via Hardcore's State of the Mariners Lambda Address
By Stevil, May 24th, 2019
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| Seattle Mariners' analytic team addressing the media in mid-May. |
With nearly 50 games played (over 50 by
the time I post this), the identity of the Mariners is pretty clear
and it's exactly what most people anticipated following spring:
Power, speed, poor relief pitching and even worse defense. The hot
start cooled off quickly as injuries mounted and plate discipline
slipped. Though many fans, including myself, were hopeful they could
at least sustain .500-ball following that unprecedented beginning,
that hasn't been the case. But their position in the standings means
little for the long-term goals which are right on track. Seriously,
they are on track.
If there were any thoughts of absorbing
(or keeping) contracts in an effort to contend this year they have
likely dissipated into the marine-layer lurking over Seattle. In
other words, no reimagining the reimagined; Seattle will be sellers,
no question. That's assuming there are buyers. I believe there will
be.
We all know Edwin Encarnacíon,
Dee Gordon, and Jay Bruce are likely
available. I will stubbornly maintain my belief that Ryon Healy is
available as well, and though Mike Leake has a no-trade clause, it's
still easy to see him getting dealt some way, some how. Félix
Hernández won't likely have enough time
upon his return from the IL
to peak the interest of a contender (and yes, I think Seattle would
eat his salary to give him a chance to contend—if a contender was
actually interested), but I'll hold out hope and ignore the odds.
*Justus Sheffield is off to a slow and
disappointing start with AAA Tacoma. His fastball command needs a lot
of work. Kikuchi might be the one to watch for a blueprint. On the
bright side, he just turned in a great performance against Fresno and
time's on his side.
*J.P. Crawford has looked major-league
ready. He's currently with the team not looking ready, but I would
anticipate him getting optioned when Gordon returns from
the IL. Service time is still in play, and if they're not contending,
it would be foolish not to stick with Moore or Beckham a little
longer and manipulate that extra year.
*Shed Long, Justin Dunn, and Evan White
have had their ups and downs, but all three are still in line for
roster spots in 2021. It would be good to see a little more power
from White before then, but gap-power would be sufficient. I've said
it before and I'll say it again: White has Olerud potential.
*Uber outfield prospect Jarred Kelenic
should be promoted before I finish this piece, and though Julio
Rodríguez had an unfortunate injury that
sent him to the IL, he looked excellent in a small sample.
*Ljay Newsome and Logan Gilbert are
impressing with Modesto and West Virginia respectively. Newsome
should be with Arkansas in short order; Joey Gerber, also with
Modesto, has had mixed results and is in the closer's role for the
Nuts.
*Braden Bishop didn't do much with his
limited opportunity in Seattle, but he has had little AAA seasoning
and is still in line for more regular playing time in 2020 or 2021.
Jake Fraley and Dom Thompson-Williams are lighting up AA, so
promotions for those two should be coming soon. It's not a stretch to
think that they could debut in 2021 if one (or both) aren't traded.
It's worth noting that some of the
off-the-radar types and late acquisitions are looking promising. Tom
Murphy and Connor Sadzeck are proving to be useful additions whom
cost virtually nothing and I'm still high on Parker Markel and Aaron
Northcraft, the former having found himself recently promoted and
demoted. There's certainly room in the bullpen for more lottery
tickets and that won't likely change even after Sam Tuivailala,
Gerson Bautista, and Hunter Strickland return.
Getting back to the trade-candidates on
the active roster, there has been some more public speculation over
the value of Mitch Haniger, which is what happens when a player like
him is in a slump. My personal feeling is that he's trying to do too
much right now (as of May 17th; evidence: lack of BB's),
but with time, I'm confident he'll settle back down and start to put
up solid numbers again.
Seattle set their course and I don't
see them veering away from it, even if foods enriched with THC are on
the menu in Seattle's front office. The grasshoppers might pose a
bigger threat to rational thinking, but I still don't see them
changing directions barring a considerable overpay (ante up,
Cleveland!). I'm more open to the idea now than I was last offseason
and I don't think it would set back the timeline for contention, but
I still firmly believe Seattle must keep at least one veteran leader
around.
Then there's the obvious...
Jay Bruce is currently the team's
fourth outfielder. He would likely represent more of a salary-dump
than a trade chip for a significant prospect unless considerable
salary was eaten. But keeping him wouldn't
be the end of the world and might even be wise for a team attempting
to integrate a number of young, unproven players. That said, it's
easy to see Colorado or Cleveland being interested and Seattle
listening.
Speaking of Cleveland (yet again),
they're trailing
Minnesota, they're dead-last in DH-production, and still need a
corner outfielder (if not two). Edwin Encarnacíon
should have a number of suitors real quick and
Cleveland absolutely should be one of them. They need offense, and
once again, he was moved to clear payroll space for Carlos Santana.
With a third of the season gone and less salary owed, less salary
relief may be needed to facilitate a deal, so Encarnacíon
and any of Seattle's outfielders should be
enticing at this stage. There has been a lot of talk about Jake
Bauers moving into the DH role full-time, but he simply doesn't offer
the same kind of production or represent much of a threat.
Dee Gordon is kind of
quietly going about his business and doing exactly what he was
brought here to do...last season. Better late than never. He should
be drawing notable interest from the Padres and possibly even the
Indians and Cubs. I still wonder if Mike Leake might agree to a
relocation plan, but San Diego's rotation isn't the train wreck some
anticipated. San Diego wouldn't be the only team checking in on him
and they may be more interested in a front-line starter, but they
still feel like the best fit—especially if they lose a starter to
injury. Gordon is currently on the IL, but he should be back soon
enough.
And the not so obvious...
Ryon Healy showed early
why he was moved to first base. He holds the worst defensive numbers
among qualified third basemen this season. But to be fair, he has
steadily improved to what I would call passable play and this
versatility certainly doesn't hurt his stock. That should make him
interesting for a number of clubs who could use some power at an
affordable price. Kansas City still makes plenty of sense, Miami
might be another. The return wouldn't be anything spectacular, but an
interesting reliever would be welcomed.
Kyle Seager isn't going to
have much time to rebuild his stock before the deadline, and even if
he does just that, there's the issue of committed salary. By the end
of 2018 I was resigned to the belief that he wasn't movable. But with
the 2020 free agent class of third basemen shrinking fast, I can't
help but wonder if a team like Philadelphia might bite in an effort
to upgrade over Franco. Cash would be involved—lots of it—but
perhaps the possibility is no longer extinct.
And what about the players
in between you ask?
Mallex Smith,
unfortunately, has struggled badly. He's one of the most likable
players, but he probably needs more AAA seasoning and is best suited as
the fourth outfielder. If he shows any kind of rebound before the
deadline, it would be interesting to see what kind of return he could
net.
Tim Beckham got off to a
blazing start, destroying everything up and away. So, pitchers
started working him down, and initially, he was selective. However,
that discipline didn't stick and he's back to looking like a streaky
player with bad glove skills. Considering he was brought in as a
place-holder, who cares? He can slide into a utility role once
Crawford is given the job full-time, or take over at second base
when/if Gordon gets moved.
Domingo Santana also got
off to an excellent start. Unlike Beckham, his bat has continued to
offer substance. But much like Beckham, his defense has been
atrocious. He's the worst left fielder in baseball. Fans and analysts are starting to suggest he's a DH. Well,
he's not. He's a right fielder, currently playing left field. He was
never a great defender, but like Bruce, he's perfectly capable of
handling right. That situation could solve itself if Haniger was
moved, but Santana himself might be shopped as a right fielder.
Catcher has been an area
of improvement. Omar Narváez is slowly
getting better at framing and seems to be handling the 'staff well.
Though I'd like to see him do better with his throws to second, the
defensive shortages behind the plate are more than made up for when
at it. Tom Murphy has looked like a steal and Austin Nola is doing
everything he can to earn an opportunity. I'd still be making calls
to Yasmani Grandal this coming offseason, but catcher isn't a
pressing area of need right now.
The rotation is going to
need a boost regardless of what the catching tandem happens to be
moving forward, but Kikuchi is progressing nicely and we may see an
investment or two via free agency as early as next offseason,
depending on how much salary gets moved at the deadline. Swanson may
be destined for relief duties, and the depth is paper-thin, so
starting pitching should be on the shopping list.
I wouldn't bet on any top
pitching prospects being acquired unless Haniger's involved, though,
and we may not see any further additions (not already in the
organization) or subtractions this season.
***
All in
all, there are more things going right than wrong. Most of the
key prospects are impressing, or at least where they should be with their development. The win-loss record and numerous blowouts might
suggest otherwise, but 2019 was never supposed to be about
contention. Some may have forgotten that after a 13-2 start, but
that's why small samples mean little.
J.P. Crawford and Dan
Vogelbach should both get significant opportunities to play
consistently in the second half. We might see more of Bishop and Long
as well, though I would leave them right where they are. There's no
reason to rush anyone. Stop-gaps and place-holders can continue to
buy time, and the only thing fans need is patience. That, and maybe a
drink to help pass through this transition as the blowouts mount.
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