The 2020 Hardball via Hardcore Seattle Mariners Offseason Plan for Spiritual Growth

  By Stevil, November 2nd, 2019

Mariner analytical team performing a demon-stration of new equipment for Howard Lincoln (center).

In case anyone didn't get the memo, Seattle is in the middle of a rebuild. They might actually be in the middle-third of a rebuild, but the next wave of graduating prospects will be arriving shortly and that means finding them opportunities, which is easier said than done. The veterans currently blocking prospects are either coming off of injury or underwhelming performances, and selling low obviously isn't ideal. A little patience might be necessary, but we'll assume it isn't a requisite and try to make the abstract pieces fit with other clubs—by force, if necessary. Jerry has our back.

Then there's the needs.

The shopping list for 2020 is a little longer than most would probably think as starting pitching is in short supply with the Félix Hernández era at its end and Wade LeBlanc's option being a little pricey. Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn will be given every opportunity to crack opening-day rotation, but they'll have to earn it and Dunn is probably more likely to start the season in AAA. Free agent stop-gaps will suffice for the short-term, so we're anticipating a relatively boring offseason, but we'll do our best to entertain you with compelling arguments for moves that won't happen while slinging a barrage of unnecessary adjectives and/or directed insults.

On that note, ladies and gentlemen, we'll dive in. First up, trades...

Omar Narváez, C, to Colorado; Terrin Vavra, SS/2B, to Seattle.

Despite juiced balls and the notoriously thin air in Denver, the Rockies ranked in the bottom-third of the league in home runs in 2019 and were at the bottom in catcher offensive statistics. In fact, they were dead-last in catcher fWAR. Narváez leaves much to be desired defensively, but his bat could do wonders for an anemic offense. The same can't be said of Tony Wolters and he has options, so Colorado fans shouldn't object to a change made behind the plate. Free agency offers plenty of suitable alternatives, but with a number of bad contracts bloating their payroll, perhaps trading for a controllable player would be a better way to go. Omar offers about as much bang-for-the-buck as a cash-strapped team trying to contend could ask for.

Terrin Vavra doesn't grade out particularly high in way of most tools or future value. But he can hit and the other tools play bigger than their grades. He could prove to be an above-average second baseman and possibly much more than that, though his positional flexibility is a large part of the attraction. He'll face stiffer competition next season, but he has shown all the plate discipline you could ask for and he seems to eat and breathe baseball. His path to the Rockies is blocked by a couple of huge boulders in way of fellow prospects Brendan Rodgers and Ryan Vilade, plus McMahon and Hampson who are currently holding the fort. Not Mission Impossible, but it's easy to see him used as a trade-chip to address immediate needs.

Mallex Smith, OF, to Minnesota; Gabriel Maciel. OF, to Seattle.

Minnesota rebounded brilliantly in 2019 to nab the AL Central title from the mitts of the Cleveland Indians. They finished second in runs scored, which isn't bad for a team that finished dead-last in stolen bases with just 28 swipes on the year (the Cubs were second-worst with 45). For what it's worth, the Twins were among the worst at base-running in general, though so was Houston, and both teams made the postseason with little trouble. That could suggest that base-running and stolen bases aren't important, but it also suggests an upgrade could make them even better.

Mallex Smith led MLB in stolen bases and would immediately give the Twins a speedy threat off the bench, which was something they lacked season-long. His ability to cover center field makes him an ideal fourth outfielder, which would allow Kepler to stay in right where he's less likely to get injured.

Gabriel Maciel is a Brazilian national who got a late start in the game, but he has shown the ability to learn quickly and already boasts plus speed, defensive skills and the kind of patience at the plate that fits Dipoto's criteria. He probably projects as a fourth outfielder and a lot of that has to do with a lack of power. But he's just 20 years old and could very well develop enough pop to make him a regular, possibly a very good regular. His floor might be what Mallex Smith is right now. His ceiling could be much higher.

Seattle could arguably use Mallex to start 2020. He's as likable as they come and that has value as well. But he's due a raise and with Jake Fraley, Kyle Lewis, and Braden Bishop likely to see/need regular playing time at some point in 2020, if not immediately, he probably doesn't figure into the long-term—or even second half—plans. Fraley, Bishop, and Lewis might not either, especially with Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez on the rise, but Seattle has to find out what they have. That would be difficult to do with players like Smith in the way whom they can't afford to simply release.

Daniel Vogelbach, DH/1B, Dee Gordon, 2B, and 12 million to Cleveland; Ka'ai Tom, OF, to Seattle.

Moving Dan Vogelbach would undoubtedly upset a lot of Seattle fans. He had a monster of a first half and made the All Star team. But he went cold in the second half and never really got back on track. Much has been noted about weight gain being a factor, and it's possible that playing first base more frequently took some wind out of him, but the lack of aggression was obvious and he struggled season-long against LHP's. Point is, he still has flags. We believe he'll be just fine in a full-time DH role, but at this point that makes him a better fit for a team like Cleveland, where he could potentially be mentored by a player with a similar approach, Carlos Santana.

Critics would be quick to point out that Jake Bauers is a LHH and DH. HVH would counter with Jake's power numbers over the last two seasons and the fact that Cleveland traded for Franmil Reyes and Yasiel Puig, rather than lean on Bauers down the stretch in 2019. The Indians would probably prefer a corner outfielder, but we suspect they'll give Daniel Johnson an opportunity before they spend on an external option. Vogelbach's pre-arb status (and potential) should make him appealing.

Speaking of Johnson, he's Rule-5 eligible and Cleveland has a notable roster-crunch on their hands. Ka'ai Tom is in the same boat as Johnson, but it seems unlikely Cleveland can protect both players and Tom's tools suggest his ceiling is lower than Johnson's.

That said, Tom had somewhat of a breakout year in 2019 and most of the success came in AA, before being promoted and continuing to impress at AAA in a smaller sample. In other words, his performance wasn't fueled by juiced balls. Seattle is seemingly stacked with outfielders in the organization, but Tom has all three options (he would have to be added to the 40) and could serve as a stop-gap and reserve, if not more, through at least 2022. Inexpensive depth is a good thing.

Former Mariner Mike Freeman might be first in line for the starting gig at second base, but Cleveland would still need an experienced backup and Dee Gordon's ability to cover shortstop should make him an attraction option if most of his salary was paid down—and it would be. This would arguably be selling low on both Vogelbach and Gordon, but peak value for those two would likely never be very high, regardless, and this move would allow Seattle to DH Santana more frequently in 2020 and hopefully rebuild his value while opening up second base for Shed Long.

Next up: Free Agents

Jake Lamb, 3B/1B; 1 year, 750k +incentives.

This is a little presumptuous, but Lamb should be a strong non-tender candidate. With Eduardo Escobar and Christian Walker handling starting duties at the infield corners, Jake would be an expensive role player with his arbitration status. To complicate things further, he has struggled more with his health than FanGraphs' Kiley McDaniel struggles with humor—and LHP's have had his number through the majority of his career. None of these facts help his cause for retainment in Arizona.

I'm kidding about the McDaniel comparative of course. Jake's health issues aren't that bad. But assuming Lamb is non-tendered, Seattle should be a good fit. There's still a need for a stop-gap first baseman and Jake graded out fairly well defensively in 2019, albeit a small sample size. Having shown incredible power when healthy, there's rebound potential here if his shoulder issue is behind him. Seattle would also be somewhat of a homecoming as he's a UW grad and has a history with Tim Laker.

Evan White will likely spend part of 2020 in AAA, but when he's ready, Lamb could take over DH duties full-time (assuming Domingo has been traded by then) or slide into a reserve role. Or simply be optioned. Or traded. But having experienced depth on hand wasn't a strength of Seattle's in 2019, so keeping him around could be a good thing. Controllable through 2021, Lamb has all the chops the Mariners need. I got that one from Kiley.

César Puello, OF; Minor-league deal w/invite.

If Seattle moves Smith and/or Santana (or even Haniger) they will need to stop-gaps. Puello had a great start to 2019 before getting traded, slumping, and eventually being designated for assignment. He's a minor-league veteran who has hit fairly well in professional ball and covers the entire outfield, so he's an ideal target for a team in need of cheap, short-term help.

John Andreoli, OF; Minor-league deal w/invite.

John has been a reserve for some time, and throughout that time he has made a lot of noise with his bat. A Control-the-Zone poster-boy, John has offered solid PA's and played adequate defense. The idea here is to retain him in a semi-oppressed role, yet give him (as well as Puello) an opportunity to start the season in Seattle if Fraley or Bishop needs to start 2020 in AAA. For the record, we're assuming Bishop will start 2020 in AAA, but it's not like finding room would be difficult when the time comes.

Rob Brantly, C; Minor-league deal w/invite.

Rob did everything right last season and was rewarded with a weekend promotion, then quickly DFA'd. We know DFA is an acronym, but we'll continue to treat it as a single verb—and we're not alone.

Getting back to Rob, his 2019 in the minors mirrors Austin Nola's in many ways and he's probably deserving of an immediate backup job. Perhaps he would require some incentive, and we wouldn't have a problem with that, but simply getting a better opportunity should be appealing for the 30-year-old. He could feasibly form a platoon with Murphy, which would allow Nola to be used around the diamond. So, we see him as a potential under-the-radar signing that could prove to be quite useful.

Rick Porcello, RHP; 1 year, 10 million + incentives +options.

After a disappointing 2019, Rick will be looking to rebound and Seattle might be a great place to do just that. Though he didn't have a lot of success last season, he held his own quite well against Houston, Oakland, Texas, and Los Angeles. If he's able to get back on track, he could figure into the long-term plan, hence the options in this proposal.

He might require more than the measly 10 million we're proposing. He might command considerably less, but this is exactly the kind of gamble Seattle should be making, however unlikely it may seem. Worst case, he would be off the books in 2021. Best case, Seattle could have a front-line starter to help lead them towards contention.

Alex Wood, LHP; 1 year, 2 million +incentives +option.

The knock on Wood has been his health. Alex missed most of 2019 due to injury, making just six starts in August before returning to the IL. But he has a history that makes a minor investment worth the while and an offseason of rest could be all he needs. The idea here would be to use him for long relief or late-inning appearances, though starting would be an option at any time.

Tommy Milone, LHP; 1 year, 2 million.

Tommy did pretty much everything asked of him for Seattle in 2019, so why not reward him with a new deal? He would retain his role as a back-end starter initially, but when Justin Dunn is ready for a consistent look, he could move to the bullpen.

Erasmo Ramírez, RHP; 750K Minor-league deal w/invite and incentives.

Reunions have been apart of the Dipoto-era and Erasmo already serves as an example. He pitched fairly well in AAA for Boston in 2019 with all things considered and there's a good chance he could break camp with the MLB team as either a starter, or in a relief role. Probably a relief role.

Michael Peoples, RHP; Minor-league deal w/invite and incentives.

Michael Peoples was a solid starter in the upper-minors last year, rebounding from a couple of injury-plagued seasons. He controlled the zone fairly well as evidenced by his K/BB, and though he had a little trouble with long-balls at times, we think that had more to do with the new ball and fatigue. He'll be a minor-league free agent if Cleveland doesn't add him to their 40 or re-sign him. But after 8 seasons with the Indians' organization, we're hopeful he gives the Indians a verbal shelling and looks for a better opportunity with his pride intact. Seattle should be an enticing carrot for a player trying to chew his way through AAA to the major leagues.

If Cleveland actually does manage to keep him around, we'll assume black magic was involved and appeal to the gods. But another starter on a minor-league deal would still probably be necessary and we're too lazy to identify other potential fits. So, it's Peoples or bust for us, people.

Non-tenders and declined options

1. Tim Beckham
2. Ryon Healy
3. Wade LeBlanc
4. Keon Broxton
   

Beckham is the most obvious candidate for expulsion, but Healy should be as well. Though he won't make a ton in his first year of arbitration-eligibility, they'll have to make a decision on him well before spring. Do they really want to keep him around not knowing if he's going to be 100%? Is his 100% worth keeping around? Would it be better for the club to simply let him loose for a better opportunity with another club? His trade value is non-existent, so why stress anything? We won't.

Wade LeBlanc was as much of a victim of the juiced baseballs as any other pitcher who was lit regularly, yet he still looked like a AAAA player in 2019. He deserves some slack, but probably not 5 million dollars worth. Exercising the option wouldn't be a big deal, but that money could be allocated towards Porcello or another rebound-candidate with more potential. Or a future player. Or a donation to HVH.

Keon Broxton is a solid center fielder, but makes better contact with his gloves than he does with his bat. Out of options and arbitration-eligible with a raise due, he's unlikely to stick around.

Another name who could be a casualty is Anthony Bass. He's due a raise and should make between 1.5-2 million in his final year of arbitration eligibility.

Anthony was first acquired from Texas in the deal for Leonys Martin which sent a local bartender and a couple of minor-leaguers east. Bass didn't stick around long, though. He was granted his release to pursue an opportunity in Japan. 

But after spending 9 days in jail for marijuana possession, just before being kicked out and banned from the country, Anthony found himself begging Jerry for another opportunity in the now legalized state of Washington. I might be mixing some of this up with Paul McCartney, but this makes for a better story.

To be blunt, Anthony was great last season. He didn't get hit hard and induced a good number of ground balls. Seeing him stick around would be nice, but the odds of him being a Mariner beyond the deadline are slim. There are a number of young relievers blazin' their way through the minors and at a lesser cost.


Payroll

A quick estimate shows about 76 million committed to current and former players in this plan (including 12 million of Gordon's salary). Another 15.5m in free agent signings; approximately 17m in arbitration and pre-arb salaries, which would make the opening day total around 108.5 million. That's a little high for a traditional rebuilding club, but Seattle isn't a traditional rebuilding club.

And this is what the active roster to start the season might look like...

Lineup

1. Shed Long, 2B L
2. Mitch Haniger, RF 
3. Kyle Seager, 3B L
4. Domingo Santana, DH
5. Jake Lamb, 1B L
6. Kyle Lewis, LF
7. J.P. Crawford, SS L
8. Austin Nola, C 
9. Jake Fraley, CF L

Bench: Tom Murphy, Dylan Moore, Rob Brantly or Tim Lopes, and one of César Puello/John Andreoli/Ka'ai Tom.

Rotation

1. Marco Gonzales
2. Yuesi Kikuchi
3. Rick Porcello
4. Tommy Milone
5. Justus Sheffield

Bullpen

1. Alex Wood
2. Sam Tuivailala
3. Taylor Guilbeau
4. Dan Altavilla
5. Connor Sadzeck*
6. Austin Adams*
7. Matt Magill
8. Zac Grotz

* Health will dictate status

The roster could/should look drastically different at the end of the season with Gilbert, Dunn, White, Bishop, Warren, Delaplane, Walton, reserve relievers, and possibly both Kelenic and Rodriguez all getting a look. Deadline trades could also clear out space, which would change the landscape, but we'll keep the speculation to a limit.

The wrap-up

The 2020 season should be more about opportunity than 2019 was. There will be growing pains, but there should be positive surprises as well. Seattle won't hit on every prospect, but there is a lot of talent headed their way and fans should be encouraged. Contending in 2021 isn't a pipe dream, though 2022 still appears to be a better target date. Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, and Logan Gilbert are all potential/likely core-players and each of them will probably need at least a year of MLB-seasoning before they can really be leaned upon. Though 2020 debuts aren't a stretch for those three, 2021 is the more realistic year for significant playing time.

We know there's an abundance of outfield talent, but questions will need to be answered. Can Kyle Lewis cut down his kS% and make more contact? Can Jake Fraley or Braden Bishop handle a full-time role, or are they best served in a platoon? Are they even good enough for platoon roles!? Can Mitch Haniger stay healthy and return to 2018-form and is he going to stick around, regardless? Will George Springer be a realistic free agent option for 2022 if internal options don't cut it? Then there's the pitching. Can Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn help anchor the rotation, or are they bullpen-bound? Will Kikuchi bounce back from the emotional roller coaster that was 2019 and will a new pitching coach make a difference? There should be a couple of years to find out.

Every position actually raises questions, but each one a little differently.

Cal Raleigh's potential makes catcher much less of a pressing need, but bringing in Yasmani Gandal—if willing—could do wonders for the team in the short-term and long-term. Getting the most out all these young (or newer) hurlers should be a priority and Grandal might be the best catcher in the game right now (yeah, I know who Realmuto is). Jerry has been clear that bringing in high-dollar free agents isn't likely going to happen, but it shouldn't be a closed-case. This plan puts Austin Nola in the drivers' seat and that's a comfortable plan B for us, but getting a core player, presumably at an affordable rate (4/72 perhaps?), would be dandy. Rick Porcello wouldn't be in the same boat as he's unlikely to get a multi-year offer worth tens of millions, but he could also slip into the conversation as a core player to move forward with.

While we're on the subject of payroll (kind of), we wondered if absorbing bad contracts in order to poach a significant prospect or two might be possible with a specific second baseman in mind. But in the end, we felt it was a better idea (and more likely) to give Long a fair shot to stick at second base and improvise if necessary. D.J. LeMahieu will be a free agent next offseason if he isn't extended or re-signed and Tetsuto Yamada, one of the best hitters in Japan, should have the 9 years of service time required to become an unrestricted international free agent in 2021 as well. Those are just two examples of possible alternatives.

Though Francisco Lindor could be a potential free agent target for 2022, shortstop is probably set with J.P. Crawford. He may not be a force at the plate, but even an average bat with his defense is more than adequate. The same might prove true for Evan White, though his offensive profile might have been repressed in 2019 due to the confines of Dickey-Stephens Park. Third was likely set with Kyle Seager through 2021 due to his contract alone, but his resurgence raises the question about his option for 2022. Fortunately, there's time to make a decision, and when the time comes, Joe Rizzo, Noelvi Marte (our top-ranked infield prospect), or even Austin Shenton, could be in the conversation. Kris Bryant might be a very real possibility at that point as well.

Designated Hitter isn't anything to sweat. In this plan we're suggesting that rotating the fielders would do the trick with Santana getting the bulk of the PA's in the first half. If Haniger and/or Santana rebound early, either (or both) could be used to address future needs via trade. There would still be no shortage of players in need of a break from fielding duties that could still swing the bat.

Little is expected of the offense in 2020, though it should be exciting to see so many young players attempt to break out. The same could be said of the pitching. The bullpen has nowhere to go but up and we could get a glimpse of what could be the 2021 rotation (Gilbert, Dunn, Gonzales, Kikuchi, and Sheffield) even without any offseason additions considered. Seattle's probably going to need a couple of starters to actually contend with (Trevor Bauer is an early favorite), but they may be able to improvise with internal options (some of which being rejected starters) for a strong, deep bullpen.

However, not everything is in Seattle's control.

One of the keys to success in 2020 and beyond might have to do with changes made to the baseballs. It's hard to see MLB doing nothing and simply sticking with what they used last season. If changes are indeed made, we could probably anticipate slugging numbers dropping and pitching statistics improving league-wide, which was a factor in preparing this offseason plan. Not much of one, but still one nonetheless. Or onetheless. That was inspired by Kiley.

That's it for now. We thank you for reading and look forward to crushing any rebuttals put forth in the comment section.

Notes & Facts

• Far less time and effort was put into this plan than in previous years, but far less time and effort was needed and far less time was available. 
• Sleep will be the priority this offseason, so if anyone anticipates immediate details from us following any trade or acquisition, they will surely be disappointed. HVH excels at disappointing fans, which is a tradition we intend to keep alive over the holidays. 
• Moves will have happened before this is posted, making some of the content redundant or moot. Informing us of anything outdated will be rewarding, as it will suggest you are annoyed. 
• Many other non-tender candidates interest us, such as Danny Salazar and Steve Souza, but without any credible updates on their health, we felt it was a safer bet to assume they're more likely to be playing for Tacoma General, than the Mariners in 2020. 
• “Baby Shark” is ridiculous, but not quite as much as Houston's front office.