Updating The Plan of the Rebuilding Mariners

Jerry Dipoto having laid out his "Step Back" plan in plain language at T-Mobile Park for Fan Fest. Nobody came.

 By Stevil, February 28th, 2020

Most Mariner fans know by now that 2020 will be a year sacrificed to the rebuilding effort, so we thought this would be a good time for an update on The Plan.

The 2019 season was more or less a disappointment at the major-league level regarding development. It was a disappointment regarding just about everything, including results, but getting experience to graduating prospects was one of the bigger goals and that wasn't realized. Justus Sheffield needed a step back before he could take steps forward, Jake Fraley and Braden Bishop dealt with injuries that limited their playing time, and though Shed Long ended up with the most PA's among the prospects with no prior MLB experience, he only mustered up 168. The injury bug hit JP Crawford as well and Yusei Kikuchi struggled to adjust to his new league. We'll see plenty of those guys this season if they can stay healthy.

Despite those setbacks there were some positives for Seattle last season. Tom Murphy and Austin Nola were pleasant surprises that came off the scrap heap and Tim Lopes looked like a potentially useful role player. Seattle managed to re-acquire an interesting prospect in Juan Then and shed more salary just as they had intended.

Best of all, the farm took huge leaps forward in 2019. Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert--the most celebrated Mariner prospects--all pushed up their timelines. We should see Gilbert debut sometime in June or July. Kelenic and Rodriguez might be more likely to debut in 2021 after service time concerns are put to rest, though extensions could make that a non-issue as we saw with Evan White.

But there were semi-hidden positives as well.

Someone virtually nobody has really mentioned as part of the rebuild that absolutely should be in the conversation is Noelvi Marte, one of  HVH's "Magnificent Seven".

He got off to a great start in 2019, then hit a 6-game slump in July before settling back in and really unloading in August. He did this at age 17. Do you know who else hit like that in the DSL at the same age? Julio Rodriguez.

Marte is likely going to start 2020 in West Virginia and he's very much a fast-track candidate. I suggested last season that he could be a feasible option for third base in 2023. But if he follows Rodriguez's path a 2022 arrival isn't a stretch. His progress this season could eliminate the need (or thought, anyway) of eating dough to move Seager early.

Let's bypass 2021 for now and think optimistically about 2022. Say Kirby, Williamson, and Marte are all primed for contributions. Without any trades or free agent signings, this is what the rotation and lineup might look like....

Rotation:

1. Logan Gilbert
2. George Kirby
3. Marco Gonzales
4. Justin Dunn
5. Brandon Williamson

Lineup:

1. Evan White, 1B
2. Noelvi Marte, 3B
3. Jarred Kelenic, CF L
4. Julio Rodriguez, LF
5. Mitch Haniger, RF/DH
6. Shed Long, 2B L
7. Kyle Lewis, DH/RF
8. JP Crawford, SS L
9. Cal Raleigh, C S

Bench: Austin Nola, Tom Murphy, Donovan Walton, and Jake Fraley.

Some of you might wonder about Sheffield. Maybe he's the 4th or 5th starter instead of Dunn or Williamson, or maybe he ends up in a swing role--or even as the closer. Depth is good thing and the bullpen is last thing we should would worry about. Some of you might also wonder why I don't have Long leading off. He certainly could leadoff, but Evan White has been a great top-of-the-order hitter as well and might do a better job getting on base. Take note of the modal verb. Having left-handed pop in the middle of the order would be nice as well.

Again, this is without external additions, and no, not every Mariner prospect is going to make it. But this is a pretty solid projection on its own as it focuses on the best prospects and youth Seattle has. All of this is speculative, but that's what you should expect without a crystal ball.

Give that some thought.


Now, give this some thought...

There is just under 45 million on the books for 2021 and roughly 24 million committed to 2022 (Seager's option declined), including Kikuchi's player option at 13 and 3.75 in dead-money. You would still have to account for arbitration and pre-arb salaries, but most arb-eligible players would be in year one of eligibility. Point is, there will be a ton of room to add via free agency or trade, and there would still be plenty of room left over for extensions--which may come first. This is possible because of the trades we saw in the 2019 offseason, make no mistake about that.

Some of the spending we'll see should come next offseason and it isn't a stretch to think Seattle could contend in 2021 if a few things break right. We're simply assuming 2022 is more realistic as some prospects will need a year or two of MLB seasoning before they even begin to reach their potential. Perhaps 2023 is even more promising, though fans probably don't want to hear that.

The byproduct of spending would be depth. Players with high floors would go to the bench or bullpen (or minors, if they have options). Expendable players could also be swapped for more prospects, or a deadline boost. Just about anything is possible.

If anyone has struggled to understand how Jerry's plan could pan out, this should help give them an idea. They don't have to hit on too many players to be successful. But if they hit on the best of the lot, watch out. Factor in some external help, and we could be witnessing a historical team--a historically good team.


And for those of you lacking patience, be grateful you're not an Astros fan. It could indeed be worse.  

That's it for now. Feel free to weigh in below.