H-Hour: The Hardball via Hardcore 2022 Seattle Mariners O-Offseason Plan

 

 

Seattle Mariners President of Baseball Operations, Jerry Dipoto (left) and Jerry Dipoto (right).

 By the Hardball via Hardcore Staff, October 11th, 2021

 

Since his arrival in Seattle, Mariners' personnel have anxiously ranted about the strange case that is Jerry Dipoto. Said to be pleasant, thoughtful—even charming; Known to take his work seriously, yet fair in the way he conducts experiments in regards to test subjects—and there have been many. Friendly and personable with staff, they started to affectionately call him 'Henry' around the office and give him a thumbs-up in passing. We at Hardball via Hardcore assumed this was a reference to the ever-cool and likable Henry Winkler, AKA 'The Fonz'. Makes sense, right? Happy Days were destined for Seattle! That was spring, 2017. Yeah, we were mistaken.

Over time, a mysterious—bordering psychotic—personality made its presence known around the front office. Terrifyingly brutal in teleconferences and unpredictable, he made everyone apprehensive. Naturally, people started to talk. Staff nervously referred to this persona as 'Eddie', and it most certainly wasn't a play on the lovable Iron Maiden mascot. This character was even given a show called The Wheelhouse, because he steered media figures in every imaginable direction. Fear that the fan base would be horrified and repulsed over its hideous appearance and behavior, ownership restricted the show to a podcast format.

But there was a familiarity in the voice of this personality. Suspicion arose, and before Goldy could put an annoyingly playful spin on it, the secret was out: That character was in fact, Jerry Dipoto—a real-life Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.

This is the reality we're in, folks. And unfortunately, we don't know which Jerry we're going to see in the offseason, so we're going to do things a little differently this year. We're going to compose a plan from the perspective of both personalities before giving you our final thoughts. We'll start with Dr. Henry Jekyll...

 

Free Agent Targets

1. Robbie Ray, LHP; 4 years, 104 million.

2. Marcus Semien, INF; 4 years, 104 million.

3. Kendall Graveman, RHRP; 2 years, 8 million +no trade clause.

4. James Paxton, LHP; Minor-league deal +incentives.

 

Team Options

1. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP; Decline: 4 years, 66 million.

2. Kyle Seager, 3B; Decline: 1 year, 20 million.

Player Options

1. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP: TBD; Prepare for the worst.
   

 

Extensions

1. Tyler Anderson, L|HP; 2 years, 22 million.

 

Trades

1. Brandon Williamson, LHP, Levi Stoudt, RHP, Yusei Kikuchi, LHP, and Cade Marlowe, OF, to Arizona; Madison Bumgarner, LHP, and Ketel Marte, OF/2B, to Seattle.

Payroll

Approximately 151 million.

Lineup

1. Marcus Semien, 2B

2. Ty France, 1B

3. Ketel Marte, CF S

4. Mitch Haniger, RF

5. Jarred Kelenic, LF L

6. Kyle Lewis, DH

7. Abraham Toro, 3B L

8. Luis Torrens, C

9. JP Crawford, SS L

Bench: Tom Murphy, Dylan Moore, Jake Fraley, Jake Bauers*

*Result of rock-paper-scissors.

Rotation

1. Robbie Ray L

2. Logan Gilbert

3. Marco Gonzales L

4. Chris Flexen

5. Tyler Anderson L

Bullpen

1. Kendall Graveman

2. Paul Sewald

3. Casey Sadler

4. Drew Steckenrider

5. Diego Castillo

6. Andrés Muñoz

7. Anthony Misiewicz L

8. Madison Bumgarner L

So, what's the presumed logic with this plan?

The rational doctor understands that the holes are significant and chasing down Houston will require an extraordinary effort. That would be neither cheap, nor easy. But if anyone can overhaul a roster, it's him, and with so little on the books and having been granted even more power as the new president of baseball operations, there really isn't an excuse to play things conservatively.

Robbie Ray broke out as a dominate, top of the rotation starter with Toronto. Though he's still a bit home run prone, some of that can be attributed to the hitter-friendly AL East, and the innings, strike outs, and limited runs he allowed facing powerful offenses make him an easy target for a team in need of a true front-line starter. Given that Seattle has the dough to outbid any competition (and make no mistake about it, they do), it's easy to see this getting done as long as both parties are interested. The bonus could be the weakening of Toronto. How great would it be to see Ray shut down his old team in Seattle with thousands of Jays' fans having spent good money to make the commute? Toronto will make the qualifying offer, but the loss of a draft pick(s) shouldn't be a deterrent.

Speaking of QO recipients, making Semien the top fielding free agent target would open up a world of opportunities for Seattle, which is why half the fan base sees him as a fit. Though he would most likely take third or second base, he could take short in place of Crawford to give Seattle a stronger lineup against tough lefties without compromising defense, and he's a true top-of-the-order hitter who can set the tone regardless of which position he plays. Further, he's been a beloved clubhouse leader. With Seager and Haniger not likely in the long-term plans, here's a guy who can help fill the veteran leadership void—and with significant postseason experience. In case anyone didn't notice, postseason experience has been scarce in the Mariner clubhouse.

While many fans probably see Abraham Toro as the future at second or third base, he might be better served in a utility roll for the long haul, and barring injury, the transition into that role would come sooner rather than later with this plan. If Marte (Noelvi) debuts in 2023 and mashes, well, the depth would be even deeper. When we hear the word deep related to Seattle, it's usually in a negative context. Just once—once—we would like to hear the word shallow.

Bringing Graveman back would help sooth the ruffled feathers the gull-pen endured at the deadline. This may not seem necessary (it isn't), but with several veterans departing and the uncertainty surrounding the readiness of Ken Giles and Andrés Muñoz, making an effort to boost the morale and depth with a clubhouse favorite who took to a relief role well doesn't seem like a terrible idea. We're assuming Giles isn't ready to go opening day.

Then there's the lone proposed trade...

This is an idea we've been pondering since the previous offseason, and to no surprise, several other fans have expressed the same ponder. Surely, Je..kyll has as well. Ketel Marte is a familiar face who happens to play multiple positions, and in this hypothetical he would be Seattle's staring center fielder most nights with the possibility of shifting to the infield. No further explanation regarding Ketel's place in the lineup should be necessary, but if anyone's wondering how the numbers compute, well...

Even if Bumgarner were to be DFA'd, his salary combined with Marte's is just under 29 million AAV the next 3 years. That's affordable for the elite production Ketel offers (when healthy). Seattle could trade for a center fielder, try to sign Starling Marte (we wouldn't disapprove), or simply stay in-house and hope that Kelenic and a combination of Lewis/Fraley/Rodríguez gets the job done. We prefer to see less gambling, wishing, hoping, and childhood idioms exercised and see more focus on proven-pop and better defense. Ketel fits the bill, and having at least one veteran who can play center to move forward with would probably be a good idea, even if it wasn't a household name.

Why would Arizona do that you ask?

They've shown a willingness to trade elite talent for mixed returns as we saw with the Goldschmidt and Greinke trades—and they ate salary to move Greinke. They have faith in their developmental system, and with Williamson & Stoudt, they'd be getting two potential starters and a stopgap (with his blessing) along with a potential replacement for Peralta in addition to enormous salary relief (47 million after accounting for Kikuchi's salary), though not without risk. Perhaps it would take some cash to help cover Kikuchi. Perhaps it would take other prospects from that middle-tier. Whatever. It should go without saying that the uber-prospects would remain off-limits. If that meant no deal, so be it. The idea here is to bribe Arizona with cash savings.

Some fans will undoubtedly look at this and dismiss it immediately. Potentially bench Toro without exercising the option on Seager? Add another option for the outfield with Julio on the horizon? Give four years to a starting pitcher with Brash & Kirby just about ripe? We get it. We've heard it many times. But keep in mind, one of Seattle's biggest flaws this past season was the lack of quality depth. The rotation won't make it through the season unscathed, nor will the lineup. This plan would have Seattle better prepared for injuries or slumps and it's not a coincidence that both fielders targeted in this plan offer positional flexibility. Versatility could prove to be vital for Seattle's postseason pulse in 2022 and beyond.

 

Got it? Good. Now, here's what we could expect from a Hydepothetical...

 

Free Agents

1. Chris Taylor, INF/OF; 4 years, 72 million.

2. James Paxton, LHP; minor-league deal. 

    

Trades

1. Diego Castillo, RHP, Joey Gerber, RHP, and Juan Then, RHP, to Cincinnati; Sonny Gray, RHP, Tucker Barnhart, C, and Alejo López, INF, to Seattle.

2. Luis Torrens, C/INF, to Miami; Brian Anderson, 3B/OF, to Seattle. 

    

Extensions

1. Tyler Anderson, LHP; 2 years, 22 million.
   

 

Team & player options

Yeah...

 

Payroll

 Approximately 113 million.

Lineup

1. JP Crawford, SS L

2. Ty France, 1B

3. Chris Taylor, CF

4. Mitch Haniger, RF

5. Jarred Kelenic, LF L

6. Brian Anderson, 3B

7. Abe Toro, 2B S

8. Kyle Lewis, DH

9. Tucker Barnhart, C L

Bench: Tom Murphy, Dylan Moore, Jake Fraley, Alejo López

 

Rotation

1. Sonny Gray

2. Marco Gonzales L

3. Logan Gilbert

4. Chris Flexen

5. Tyler Anderson L

Bullpen

1. Paul Sewald

2. Ken Giles

3. Andrés Muñoz

4. Casey Sadler

5. Drew Steckenrider

6. Yohan Ramírez

7. Yusei Kikuchi L
   

8. Anthony Misiewicz L

    

In this demented mindset, fans still wouldn't have their beloved third baseman for a saideira. Instead, they'd get a reunion with Chris Taylor and a lateral move to address the immediate need in the infield. Should Anderson fail to be ready for opening day, Taylor would simply shift to second base (Toro to third) and perhaps Jake Bauers would live to fight another game, rather than being DFA'd out of spring. Targeting leftovers from Tampa's roster-crunch could be an alternative plan as well. Kevin Kiermaier, Brett Phillips, and Manuel Margot are all center fielders, so those would be names to watch—especially the former. We simply feel that Taylor's ability to cover center would suffice for this creature's concerns.

The bullpen would bank on the readiness of Giles and Muñoz, and the Jekyll-esque concept regarding the rotation (Tyler Anderson extension, plus a veteran external addition) would be in play. It is actually the same guy calling the shots here, folks, so some moves are going to be at least a little similar. This is simply the stingy version as future (and immediate) payroll commitments would be minimized and the stubbornness of leaning heavily on prospect talent and non-stars would remain policy.

To be fair, a team can still do wonders with a roster full of good—but not great—players. Tampa and Oakland have proven that many times over. The deal proposed here with Cincinnati serves as a good example of how two tightwads might go about tightening up.

***

 

Disappointed? Angered? Amused? If you took the time to actually read our nonsense this far, we've accomplished what we set out to do: entertain...ourselves. Seriously, we don't actually anticipate many of these ideas happening (well, at least not the trades), and we believe that 2022 is going to be at least a partial year for development as several of the younger players and rookies from 2021 still look to find their way while several others earn promotions to the big-league club. We simply don't believe that all of them should be on the stage at the same time—and Hyde has been pressing. None of Seattle's notable hitting prospects saw significant time in AAA (in some cases, none at all) and the most recent additions, Kelenic and Raleigh, barely spent any time in AA. That's probably not the best approach for a team trying to entrench themselves firmly in contention, and since finishing the development at the MLB level has largely yielded questionable results (to put it politely), the wise decision would be to, well, take a 'step back' and focus more on veterans carrying the load.

To be clear, as if it wasn't clear already, the Jekyll plan is mostly what we would do, though we would delegate the decision on Seager's option to him, and if he were to decline, we would consider adding another fielder, such as Eduardo Escobar via free agency or Joey Wendle via trade (if available). That may seem excessive (it is), but the goal isn't to contend for a wild card, is it?

If anyone cares to argue that there's no need for such expenditures because Julio Rodríguez and Matt Brash are so close, we're game. We'll defend our suggestions until the bitter end. There are 26 places on the active roster and each one of them should be occupied by a legitimate major-leaguer if at all possible, whether that be a role player, or a potential regular.

That said, what we actually expect to see is something kind of in the middle of the two plans. Spending 150 million before more of the elite prospects debut might be wishful thinking (we're trying to will it into happening), but perhaps they splurge on a single fielder like Taylor, Semien, Bryant, or Marte (Starling), trade for a lesser-hyped, more affordable veteran and ink a solid starting pitcher without the qualifying offer attached, such as Marcus Stroman. We're anticipating Torrens or Haniger (or both) getting traded to thin the herd of RHHs and address a need in the process, but that's not something we would advocate, nor stress. Having too many good RHHs worked just fine for Toronto.

Whatever direction they go, they can't half-ass it and expect another 90-win season. Forget the clutch stats. The runner-on-second in extra-innings is likely going away and that alone changes the dynamics drastically. There's no way around it, they must add talent. Though there are no guarantees in baseball, making a real effort could go a long way towards restoring faith in the fan base. It would also send a strong message to the players currently on board, free agents, and those queuing alike: we're all-in. That has to be attractive to everyone.

Seattle's at another crossroads. They can choose a more realistic path towards contention, or they can take the back roads. We'd like to see them pay the tolls with the goal of arriving at a World Series.

Notes

*Yes, we believe Luis Torrens should be the starting catcher till Cal Raleigh is actually ready. Only four catchers had a higher wRC+ than Torrens since June 15^th (with 250 or more PAs) and his defense is passable. Having him work with the pitching coaches to tighten up his throwing could make his defense more than passable. If we have hurt anyone's feelings, or offended anyone, we would like to direct you to @RyanDivish for consultation. He lives to mend torn lives, which is exactly why he became a beat writer covering the Mariners.

*Madison Bumgarner has been terrible for Arizona. We are aware of that. We're also aware of his splits and believe he could still be effective in relief with a focus on LHHs if Pete Woodworth and Trent Black can't get him back on track as a starter. He'd have the spring to adjust and earn a place in the rotation. If he were to fail, he would go to the bullpen and become a bad-contract-swap candidate.

*The cost to sign stars, such as Semien and Ray, may not be as high as we suggested. They might also be higher than we suggested. If your gripes are with the offers we suggested, you've missed the point.

*Tyler Anderson would probably like to test free agency. Paying him 8 figures AAV might convince him otherwise. There's zero reason to believe he could (nor should) be low-balled.

*We lined out about 20 different trade scenarios and concluded that what we went with from both perspectives is 100% likely to happen. Never mind what we said in the conclusion. With sports betting becoming a thing, we felt we needed to step it up, and rest assured, you can take our suggestions to the bank.

*If you're asking yourself why Jake Bauers is even a consideration for the active roster, we would be happy to hear who you think would be a better stopgap till Julio Rodríguez forces his debut.

*If Kikuchi exercises his player option for 13m, we could see Mr. Hyde demoting him, then placing him on the IL for something trivial, therefore killing any chance he has at recuperating his value in free agency the following offseason. Of course it's entirely possible that he has dignity and declines in favor of a fresh start elsewhere. At this point, the only thing that would surprise us is him making the opening day roster as a member of the rotation.

*We typed out a list of DFA candidates, then realized that none of the names on that list should surprise anyone. The list of potential Rule-5 protectees is probably short after Julio: Devin Sweet and Ray Kerr. They could be trade fodder as well.

*Any trade involving a productive bat should net Seattle a (good) major-league player in return. Any trade involving prospects should net Seattle a major-league player in return, or at least a prospect close to the majors and capable of serving as depth. Seattle has a number of players in need of 40-man protection in December, 2022, so don't be surprised if a prospect or two from that group get moved.

*The beauty about these offseason plans is that we can do whatever we want (and we do).

*Any rebuttals centered around BTV listings will be dismissed and mocked accordingly.

*Infield guru Perry Hill should be given a 30-year extension. We're confident he would still be more valuable to Seattle from a nursing home through age 100 than any alternative. 

*Some of the free agent targets may end up accepting the QO or signing extensions, making most of this moot. Consider this a disclaimer that we're aware of how stupid we may look. It's nothing new to HVH.

*Have fun and stay safe.