What Now? Hardcore Offseason Lockout Speculation & Rambling

 

Jerry Dipoto on the streets after being ousted by Jerry Dipoto.

By Stevil, December 14th, 2022

 

November proved to be a busy month. Seattle got their front-line starter in Robbie Ray and a formidable second baseman in Adam Frazier. Not a bad start to the offseason, but quite a few names came off the board and few players that remain via free agency fit Seattle's needs well for the long-term...which would be players willing to sign non-long-term deals. There's no need to panic (really, there isn't), but there's clearly some work to do and there may not be a lot of time to get things done once a deal is reached between MLB and the MLBPA. We know there's a need for a third baseman, center fielder, and a starting pitcher. However, what Seattle needs/wants and who is realistically available are two different things. Pittsburgh wants Julio (and more) for Bryan Reynolds; Arizona signed a closer, making a Ketel Marte acquisition seem unlikely if they have any illusions of contention (and they might). Carlos Correa is probably demanding more than Corey Seager's 10/325 and he comes with both character and health issues. Kris Bryant and Trevor Story are likely looking for 7-10 years which could be a deal-breaker for the Mariners—and nobody should fault Seattle if that proves to be the case. You can fault them if they don't do anything more with the lineup, but there are other options. We'll get to some of them in a minute, but let's reminiscence a little first...

We released our offseason plan in October in anticipation of early transactions, though most of the work was done in the months prior. If there was one semi-surprise between then and the start of the offseason (and it really wasn't that surprising), it was Oakland letting Bob Melvin walk and signaling that they're open for business. Doubling prices for seats was a pretty strong hint that they were up to something devious, however, their team was/is (still) poised to contend. Rebounds from a couple of key players could make all the difference, so they may have no intention of tanking. We watched them sell off a number of players in the 2015 offseason only to retool, giving more opportunity to guys like Mark Canha, Josh Reddick, and Stephen Vogt, while bringing in/playing other young players they felt they could move forward with, including Marcus Semien, Ben Zobrist, Chris Bassitt, and Kendall Graveman. They whiffed on some rebound candidates and were never in contention, but ultimately they fared well with the moves they made as the team went on a late first-half tear in 2018 and never looked back, finishing the season with 97 wins and forcing Jerry Dipoto to change course and lead Seattle into the team's first true rebuild.

And here we are, three years later.

We're rehashing Oakland's recent rebuild history because they may be looking to stay competitive and prepare for the future just as we saw in the 2015 offseason, and if that's the case, perhaps players that are major-league ready, or close(r), might be of interest. Then again, their ownership might be inclined to simply stockpile talent and worry about their future from Las Vegas. Regardless, Seattle should have the under-the-radar players and/or prospects Oakland seems to covet to get a deal done.

Matt Chapman makes a ton of sense for Seattle. Though he's coming off a semi-disappointing 2021, he was also coming off a significant injury and still offered power (27 home runs) with his trademark, stellar defense. Seattle isn't a team that should be banking on rebound candidates, but with a floor like Chapman's, he would give the Mariners a much needed boost even without improvement upon his 2021 season. Chris Bassitt is another Athletic who makes sense for Seattle. He spent some time on the IL in mid-August after attempting to show up Mitch Haniger's HBP to the face. He returned for two more starts to boast about his accomplishment directly to Mitch himself, but threw just 6.1 innings in total. So unnecessary. We'd welcome him anyway.

The big question, of course, is what would it take to land those two? Could Seattle take on Stephen Piscotty's contract to lighten the return? The top 5 or 6 prospects are probably off-limits, but would prospects from the next tier interest Oakland? What about MLB-ready players? Abraham Toro, for example, shouldn't be off-limits. He could be replaced with a free agent like Jonathan Villar via free agency if necessary.

If there was a second surprise between the posting of our plan and the start of the offseason, it was the news that Seiya Suzuki would be posted. In fact, it absolutely was a surprise—a pleasant surprise.

Most fans know at least a little about him by now. He has posted monster numbers in NPB since 2016, establishing himself as a power-bat with superb plate discipline and pitch recognition. Some reports suggest early usage in the infield hurt him defensively; others suggest he's where he belongs: in right field. We couldn't disagree more.

Though his arm fits quite nicely in right, he has the tools and athleticism to handle center just fine, and it probably wouldn't hurt to get him some quality time with Perry Hill for possible infield spot-starts down the road. Suzuki could prove to be the steal of the offseason, and if Seattle capitalizes on these surprises, we could soon be referring to them simply as prizes, complete with bad puns (and more to come).

This is what the lineup might look like early in the season with Chapman and Suzuki on board...

1. Adam Frazier, 2B L

2. Kyle Lewis, DH

3. Seiya Suzuki, CF

4. Ty France, 1B

5. Jarred Kelenic, LF L

6. Mitch Haniger, RF

7. Matt Chapman, 3B

8. JP Crawford, SS L

9. Luis Torrens/Tom Murphy, C 

   
   

Bench: Abraham Toro, Dylan Moore, Jake Fraley, Tom Murphy/Luis Torrens

There's a lot to like about this. Apart from the defensive upgrades and power boosts, there's still the ability to adjust to opponents as necessary. This would be amplified even further if Evan White and Cal Raleigh pull everything together after a few months in AAA. Don't discount possible contributions from Donovan Walton, either. Then there's Julio Rodríguez.

Bassitt would fill the remaining hole in the rotation, and though he has just one year of control remaining, that may be all Seattle needs with Matt Brash and George Kirby both possibly making a few starts and poised for regular contributions in 2023.

This would be the opening day rotation. Don't sweat the order...

1. Robbie Ray L

2. Chris Bassitt
   

3. Chris Flexen

4. Marco Gonzales L

5. Logan Gilbert

 

Regarding payroll, let's say they shell out 5/70 for Suzuki, roughly 10 million for Chapman's 2022 salary, another 9 million for Bassitt, and eat Piscotty's 7.583 million. Payroll would be around 120m with everything liberally factored in. There is nothing restrictive about that, so extensions for Crawford and Haniger would still be a very real possibility as would mid-season trades and the ability to absorb additional salary. Heck, they could bring in another reliever as well to thicken up the depth. A lack of all around depth was the reason the Mariners fell short of the postseason the last two years, and though an extra reliever may seem like a luxury (or a waste), spring injuries could leave them scrambling like eggs for arms.

Seattle likely came into the offseason without a set plan of attack, having numerous potential targets. Can't get Marcus Semien on a 4-year deal (or 5, or even 6)? No problem.  Trade for a second baseman with some positional flexibility and invest more heavily elsewhere. They raised the floor, regardless of what happens next. Call it insurance, call it whatever, but what we've seen has been positive.

Now, maximizing talent without adding excessively long-term commitments or sacrificing elite prospect capital to do so was always the key to this offseason, and we know this because we swiped intel directly off of Jerry's desk while going under cover and delivering a pizza. We went above and beyond to share what we learned with the fan base—and no, this approach we're seeing wasn't at all obvious. Never mind the history of transactions or the transparency of Jerry's statements that suggested we could see what we're seeing, it took very real, risk-taking, amateur investigative journalism to provide our readers with quality content so they (you) know what to expect. 

For the record, we're suggesting you expect these exact moves. It's never about process—just specific transactions. Keep that in mind when spring comes as well. 

 

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Anyway, it's good that we've seen the rational Doctor at work in the early going. We still have a long way to go, and we don't know when things will get going again, but it is what it is. And with a freeze on transactions, there has been a freeze on pizza orders as well, so we've got nothing more for you to discuss/debate/argue. We just hope you enjoy the holidays and do something to make the holidays (and life) more enjoyable for someone/something in need. Be better than the MLB owners.

 

Peace.