Friday Night Mariner Blues: What Seattle Baseball Boredome Bores.

 By Stevil, Friday, January 14th, 2022

Today we're going to ramble about the future, both short-term and long-term. One pass through Twitter, or any baseball-related comment section, and you'll see the same names mentioned as Mariner targets: Kris Bryant, Trevor Story, or a trade for Matt Chapman (yes, we're still in that camp), to address the hole at third base vacated by the now retired Kyle Seager. To a far lesser extent, Seiya Suzuki, and for some reason, a number of corner (only) outfielders with mostly poor defense to tighten/loosen up the outfield, depending on your perspective. Pitching's been a little more diverse, with Tyler Anderson and a number of other names being mentioned, mostly from Oakland and Cincinnati's current rosters.

The fear, and delight to all the Debbie-Downer fans, is that Seattle could miss out on the big names. This is it, this is the year, right!? They cannot miss out on Bryant/Story/Chapman, right? They have to land another notable starter, right?

Maybe not, and while you prepare your verbal assaults/insults for rebuttal, consider reading through the rest of this rant.

Though Seattle should do something about third base, it wouldn't be the end of the world if they went after a cheaper alternative, such as Jonathan Villar, or gave Abraham Toro the first half and reassess at the deadline. That would probably be a worst-case scenario, or plan 'D'. They could also call upon Sir Perry Hill to transform Jeff McNeil or JD Davis into a decent defender if a trade with the Mets could be realized. Really, they have options, it's just that most of those options wouldn't move the needle. We'll get back to that in momentarily.

They most certainly don't need to tie up 6-8 years (or more) for a mediocre defensive third baseman whose future is most likely DH. Why? Because apart from having a stellar prospect in Noelvi Marte who could fill the void internally in 2024 (ETA), the best third basemen in baseball are going to be available in two years. The 2024 offseason for third basemen is the equivalent of 2022's short-stop class—and it's arguably better. Matt Chapman, José Ramírez, and Rafael Devers Calcaño are all star options (you were warned about the puns), and then there's Brian Anderson, Jeimer Candelario, Ryan McMahon, and Joey Wendle. Who can honestly say they wouldn't prefer one of those top three over a current free agent over the long-term?

There's an argument that because of these upcoming free agent options, they wouldn't need to sweat keeping Marte around. They could use him to land Chapman, for example, then either extend him, or sign a free agent. Well, yes, there's some logic there. But what if JP Crawford regresses significantly and Marte is needed at short? Marte is Seattle's lone, elite infield prospect at the moment. Taking away a potential star internal option and putting themselves in a position where they're dependent on free agency or trade wouldn't be ideal, so any trades—and this isn't something new that's being suggested—shouldn't involve any elite prospects. The second tier features a number of promising pitchers and outfielders, and that's exactly where Seattle fans might expect prospect currency to come from—if necessary. MLB-ready players could very well be part of a post-lockout deal.

Now, about moving the needle.

 

Seattle needs an impact-bat, preferably two. Did everyone catch Shannon Drayer's excellent article regarding AL West top-3(+) bats for each team? If not, you can do so here: https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1552460/drayer-how-does-heart-of-mariners-order-stack-up-with-rest-of-al-west/ If this doesn't convince you Seattle needs to add, nothing will.

At risk of sounding repetitive, they also need better outfield defense, specifically in center. Suzuki could answer both defensive and offensive needs. Even in an over-pay situation, he's not likely going to cost more than 6/90, and Chapman would offer the same combo from/with the infield even without improvement from 2021.

We know Seattle's interested in both players and both have been covered in this blog, but what if the asking price is just too high for Chapman? Could gambling/experimenting with third base defense for at least an offensive gain be a decent backup plan and a better idea than signing Bryant or Story if the years & dollars required to land either one prove to be unreasonably excessive? Just a reminder, we're talking about a focus on the next two years. If that proves to be the case, Jerry Dipoto should probably turn to the trade market, and there's little doubt he has already made a number of calls.

If they also failed to land Suzuki, and there's obviously no guarantee they will get him, Seattle would really have to get creative for offense. Sure, the new CBA could eliminate the previous service time issues, leading to an earlier debut for Julio Rodríguez, and Toro may very well prove to be a respectable regular. It's just a lot of risk and uncertainty for a team that's been hyping their desire to improve and end a 20-year postseason drought. The jury's still out on Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Taylor Trammell, Cal Raleigh, etc. Finding veterans/experience to fill the gaps still makes the most sense.

Then there's the pitching.

 

 

There is indeed a need for another starter, but it's probably not as pressing as it may seem, or at least not as much as the HVH staff first believed. If free agency dries up and the trade route proves too costly in prospect capital, they could make the fifth slot a competition between Matt Brash, Nick Margevicius, Justin Dunn, and Justus Sheffield and reassess once George Kirby looks ready or mid-season trades become a possibility. Picking up a rehabbing starter, such as Mathew Boyd, might not be a terrible idea, either. That wouldn't do anything for Opening Day, but he could be ready about the time injuries start to creep in, or when they simply need to try something different.

There's arguably room for a better eighth reliever, and though Seattle usually carried eight in 2021, the extra arm served more for mop-up duties and insurance than a go-to option. This just isn't a pressing need, though an under-the-radar acquisition should always be anticipated.

The point of this post was to look at Seattle's immediate needs and provoke a little more thought regarding long-term commitments to the more popular infield names still available via free agency. Signing Bryant or Story most certainly shouldn't (and wouldn't) disappoint anyone. But missing out on both shouldn't break any hearts, and though the critics would have a field day with it (not of the Dag Nasty variety, either), it wouldn't mean 2022 is lost before it begins. It would just mean a trade acquisition is more likely, possibly at the deadline rather than whatever remains of the offseason, and tightening up elsewhere would be more critical.

To be clear, HVH would prioritize landing Seiya Suzuki if he's legitimately interested in Seattle—and he should be. Finding a better option for center field, regardless, might be more important than finding a household name for third base, and finding a lesser-hyped third baseman might be more important than finding a back-end starter. Are you following? Do you agree?

That said, here's to hoping they address all three needs—with the best possible options. 

 

Cheers