Plan 9 from Jerry's Space

By the HVH staff, March 15th, 2022

 

One, quick look at the trade between Seattle and Cincinnati yesterday might leave the pessimistic Mariner fan thinking "typical Mariners".  They traded for a corner outfielder when they needed a center fielder, and addressed third base with a rebound project coming off two poor seasons. 

That would be a lazy take. 

We looked hard at virtually every feasible option at third base and center field, and it should go without saying that the list was short. Eugenio Suárez caught our attention because of his projections for 2022, but ultimately, we dismissed the idea because Seattle really can't afford to gamble on rebounds. Their last postseason appearance was in 2021. They need stars. They have financial flexibility. 

That, too, was a lazy take. 

Apart from getting his contract wrong (we thought he was owed another 60+ million, but it's less than 34m), it never occurred to us that the ZiPS projection, specifically, was a strong hint to take a harder look. We didn't take a harder look until yesterday. Here's what we found: 

1. He still hits the ball hard.
2. He ran a low BABIP until September.
3. His splits facing RHPs were better than LHPs and almost identical to Seager's.  
4. Like Seager, he was victimized by the shift (49th most via FanGraphs).

He wasn't likely Seattle's first choice to replace Seager. He wasn't likely their second, third, or even fourth. This might have been Plan 9 for all we know. But with time running short to balance out the team, and given all the signs that scream 'rebound' (REBOUND!), we should be comfortable with this acquisition. And we are--especially because of the other piece.

Jesse Winker was never a real consideration for us. We anticipated a future with Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodríguez in the corners, possibly/likely supported by Mitch Haniger and Kyle Lewis. Zach DeLoach is getting close as well, and Jake Fraley was a respectable role player.

That's not to say we didn't like Winker, we just didn't see the fit. Sure, he has played center in a pinch, but he's not a center fielder. He's also more of a platoon bat. Why did Seattle target him!? The answer is simple: He absolutely destroys RHPs. He's in the company of Juan Soto and Bryce Harper. Further, the pickings were slim for true center fielders. Starling Marte got four years, eighty million. Seiya Suzuki was (is) taking his time, and as talented & interesting as he is, he still comes with some question marks. The trade route offered little more. Perhaps Kevin Kiermaier would have been okay had they landed an impact-bat at third base. Maybe Lorenzo Cain has enough in him to handle a part-time role. Neither would have offered much at the plate.

The bottom line is that center was even more difficult to address than third. So, Seattle improvised, focusing on boosting the offense. Both Suárez and Winker offer power. Both make the team better. Something had to be done and here we are.

When you pencil in a lineup (without Julio), everyone fits and you can envision a respectable offense. We may see a bench player brought in before the season starts, and we know there's still interest in adding starting pitching. Perhaps an upgrade will be needed somewhere at the deadline. But for now, Seattle has put together a team that should contend and that was always more important than just spending loads of money. The fact that they still have money to add if/when necessary doesn't hurt. 

Losing Brandon Williamson stings a little more than Jake Fraley and Justin Dunn, but Seattle traded from an area of strength and this could pay off enormously really quick. We have our reservations, so we won't fault you for having some yourselves, but there's reason to feel good about this and what lies ahead, so we hope you feel good, too.