Winter Meetings, underwhelming moves, and a bleak forecast

 

Angry Mariner fans protest outside of T-Mobile Park to express their disappointment with the current lack of effort to field a World Series contender.

 

By the Hardball via Hardcore Staff, December 12th, 2022

 

So, here we are in the middle of the Winter Meetings. We've seen a few moves, mostly unflattering, and heard a few disturbing things. 

Diving right in, the Statcast numbers on Teoscar Hernández are strikingly similar to a player we targeted in our offseason plan, Joc Pederson. Neither are great defenders, but Teoscar isn't a liability in the field, and the price to acquire him was perfectly fine. He likely replaces Mitch Haniger and there's an argument he makes the team better. We really felt Seattle checked off one of four key needs in that acquisition. We're trying to start this off on a positive note and this was a positive move. The tone will change.

The price to acquire Kolten Wong, in a vacuum, was perfectly fine. Seattle wanted to move on from Jesse Winker, and Abraham Toro simply wasn't going to have a place on the 2023 roster. Stashing him in Tacoma made little sense given his arbitration projection, so there's an argument that Seattle did well from a financial standpoint to move both players to address an area of need...again, in a vacuum.

The problem is that the gap between Seattle and Houston was, and is, significant. The Mariners lack star-power, and though Wong projects better than Adam Frazier, the gap isn't closing with acquisitions like this. Houston lost Justin Verlander, but they've added José Abreu and they aren't likely finished. Seattle needs stars. This can't be stressed enough. If the comments regarding opportunities for one of the young left-handed hitting outfielders, Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, and Cade Marlowe specifically, are a hint or glimpse of what Jerry & Justin have in mind, fans are likely in for a disappointing season ahead. The needle doesn't move when the opponent(s) get better and your moves fall short in comparison.

Jerry & Justin aren't likely finished, either. Even if we see Jarred Kelenic handed the keys to left field, they'll need at least one more bat they can rotate through the OF and DH. Perhaps the emphasis on more stable options isn't what we thought it was (or never was) and players looking to rebound, such as Michael Brantley & Michael Conforto, or even NPB new-comer, Masataka Yoshida, have their interest. Brandon Nimmo would still make an excellent option to bat in front of Julio, but would they spend more than the 5/115 deal they handed Robbie Ray a year ago? It would likely take more than that and they're probably more interested in a corner outfielder they can platoon in left field.

More trades seem likely, especially with the meetings in progress, and your guess is as good as ours (a quick guess: Taylor Trammell or Chris Flexen to Boston for Rob Refsnyder). Fans are speculating wildly over Bryan Reynolds right now. We like him, too. He'll be tough to acquire, though, and Seattle probably doesn't have the chips, so a third team would probably have to be involved. 

But Seattle needs more than just bats. We're still likely to see a LHRP acquired and possibly another RHRP even after signing Trevor Gott. Less likely, a starting pitcher, but if there's an opportunity to shed the salaries of both Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales, perhaps adding a new starter becomes a possibility. At least one of Marco/Chris is still likely to go, regardless. Never mind the concern expressed about team chemistry. That likely applies to Julio and few others. But that's not our biggest concern.

 

The Seattle Mariners have been in existence since 1977. They're the only team to have never even made it to a World Series. Half-assing a golden opportunity to field a sustainable World Series contender—and make no mistake about it, that's exactly what is happening—almost assures that the drought will be extended to a whopping 47 years with no end in sight. And fans thought the 20-year postseason drought was bad?

We have been flat-out wrong with our assumptions this offseason. Nothing promised in the sales-speech given to fans at the time of the rebuild has been honored. Nothing. We believed if there was ever an offseason to make splashes, this was it. Two glaring holes, a number of available stars, and what appeared to be significant payroll flexibility—suggested in their own words, which will get to in a minute.

Spending on extensions that spread out and may extend as far as 2034 isn't the same as spending now, and concern about 2026 commitments is simply nonsense. One look at team revenue figures & expenses, along with the reality of projected salaries and the likeliness of personnel changes, for a variety of reasons, should leave you with a good understanding of why the mere notion is ridiculous.

We're not actually trying to ridicule Jerry, though. He's given a budget and limitations, and he and his lieutenant, Justin Hollander, have to work within those confines. Trea Turner just signed with Philadelphia for a haul and was allegedly offered more by San Diego. It's entirely possible that some players don't want to play in Seattle, we all know that, but with so many stars available, it's hard to believe there isn't a match. We'll reserve our definitive judgment until we know how the roster looks in the aftermath (spring), but we reserve the right to remain skeptical and disappointed with little hope for the time being. The goal shouldn't be to get better. The goal should be to be the best: A World Series title. Jerry Dipoto literally stated at the time of the rebuild “Our goal is to win the World Series as soon as we can.” Well...

We all know about the 2018-2019 shedding-salary-now in order to 'pay it forward' remarks. Jerry literally stated that the future salary commitment they cut off (specifically referring to the Canó & Segura contracts) would become capital to reinvest in player acquisition. The year cited: 2021. You can argue that the pandemic-shortened 2020 season set everything back a year, but the 2021 payroll was approximately 73.4m. The 2022 payroll was approximately 103.9m. The 2023 projected payroll as of now is roughly 131m and that may actually drop if/when a starting pitcher is traded.

So, where's the money going? The answer can't be in the form a future year. The organization made a promise to the fan base that hasn't been fulfilled. They can't hold the fans' money hostage. Trea Turner may have had zero interest in becoming a Mariner, or the dough to land him may have just been ridiculous. If that was the case, so be it, but there are other stars just as useful and the days of spaghetti experiments should be over.

Cut the excuses and give us an actual World Series contender.