Five Questions with Lengthy Answers

HVH staff member speaking to the entirety of their fan base.

  

By Tommy Gunner, 12 February, 2023 

So, here we are with spring just around the corner and we've been as inactive as ever, so we thought we should at least attempt a quick post. 

 

So, that's what we'll do. Here are five questions from a list of ten that Stevil reluctantly responded to.

 

Q: Have the Mariners done enough this offseason and are they finished?

 

A: They have not. They lack depth, despite what Dipoto says--and he knows that. Moore and Haggerty are going to be leaned upon vs. LHPs, likely relieving Crawford and Wong. That's fine for the infield, but the outfield is another story. If Kelenic Struggles, the alternative is another unproven or inexperienced player/prospect, or more of Pollock, who struggles to stay healthy and had trouble with RHPs last season. We're supposed to see DH rotated, and I suppose Moore could play an OF corner vs. RHPs, but otherwise it's likely going to be a lot of La Stella who has suffered from injuries and struggled the last two years. Not encouraging.

They needed and still need bats--plural. They did well to create pitching depth, and we might see a late trade from that stockpile if everyone stays healthy, but I'm not expecting anything significant. I'm not so sure we'll see anything significant at the deadline, either.

Q: Are they actually following the plan they laid out at the time of the rebuild?

 

A: For the most part, yes, because they've graduated two waves of prospects and opened their window of contention. But there's an enormous contradiction regarding spending. They were vocal that they would spend when the time was right, implying that would happen as they emerged from the rebuild. They're moving the goalposts now. Stating that they've spent, but have simply done it differently, is hogwash. Yes, I just used the word hogwash.

 

They know what they have now. They have a pretty solid core in place centered mostly around Julio and starting pitching. This was the time to add, or 'augment' the roster, as Jerry would put it. But they're re-writing the next stage of the script. What we're seeing, in my opinion, is kind of another 'step back', or hit-the-brakes situation. They seem content with being a wild card contender (Stanton, anyway) and hopeful they can churn out a few more regulars, or eventually trade for one, rather than splurge on two or three free agents.

Trades have consequences, though. The next wave of fielders isn't due until 2025 or 2026 and their available pitchers, and prospects they can afford to move, may not net them what they need.

This really was the year to add via free agency, in my opinion. They have a good--but not great--team, they've blown a lot of their prospect currency, and they're not a real World Series contender--and they could have been. That is beyond frustrating. To get so close and suddenly hold up makes zero sense if the goal is actually winning a World Series.

Q: Was the free agent class actually as good as everyone seems to think, or was it over-hyped because of the shortstops?

 

A: I think it was better than many people realize. Apart from the shortstops, there were aces and front-line starters available, a few big first basemen, and a number of outfielders--both regulars and part-timers that can DH. There were a few catchers...yeah, I think this was an excellent class.

 

Seattle coming away with Pollock and a non-tendered reliever was disappointing to say the least. Both help, but Seattle needed a lot more.  

Q: Where did they really whiff and could they make up for it at the deadline?

 

A: Most people would probably expect me to say second base. But the only two infield free agents that really made sense for Seattle to spend big on were Turner and Correa. Turner clearly wasn't interested in west coast teams and Correa obviously has some health issues that should give pause for thought. We should also keep in mind that Seattle made a run at Story a year ago and he's likely going to miss all or most of 2023. He had health concerns as well and Correa's might be more significant. I don't hate the Wong trade, all things considered, but I hated hearing fans back the idea as a Plan A. It probably wasn't Plan A and that just made it all the more vital that Seattle made a more valid effort elsewhere...which they didn't.

 

They whiffed in the outfield. Had they splurged on a left fielder and DH they could rotate through the outfield, they would have created depth by default and perhaps closed the gap between them and Houston. Instead, they're betting on themselves--again--and a couple of lottery tickets while other contenders did the opposite. Jerry suggesting they didn't make a splash in free agency because the options didn't really make sense was pure nonsense. Quick note: I realize I've sounded anti-Dipoto lately. I'm not. He's trying to protect the integrity of the organization. The excuses and pivoting are annoying, but this is very likely the result of budget restrictions set by ownership.

 

Regarding the deadline, sure, they could possibly address their needs then, but could they do it without completely gutting their farm and shortening their window for contention or jeopardizing the long-term? Probably not. Jerry himself has noted many times that prices are higher at the deadline, and with a farm already thin--largely due to graduations, to be fair--I can't imagine them realistically being in the mix for impact players and they're already a team with plenty of mediocrity. What they lack are stars.

 

Q: What might be the best & worst case scenarios?

 

A: Best case, Kelenic breaks out, La Stella returns to 2019 form, nobody regresses significantly and we see the younger players coming off a successful 2022 season take steps forward. No glaring needs at the deadline and perhaps they could extend a player or three. It should go without saying that the World Series is highly unlikely, but a similar outcome as we saw last year wouldn't be a stretch.

 

Worst case, they end up around .500, miss the playoffs and head into next offseason needing three outfielders, a second baseman, a fielder they can DH, a backup catcher--Murphy is also due to hit free agency--and watch Texas leapfrog them in the AL West.

Whatever happens this season, they could head into next offseason with an even bigger shopping list than they had heading into this offseason, but with a weaker free agency class and less available prospect currency. That should concern fans and it's a big reason you heard me float the idea of at least entertaining a trade involving a starting pitcher, prospect or otherwise, for a regular fielder of equal talent and control. Pitching is the one area where they have some depth and have seen considerable developmental success--and fast. Can't say the same about the hitting. Not yet, anyway. They've had an easier time attracting pitching to Seattle as well.

 

Something to chew on. 

 

I'll go take care of the cats now. Cheers.  

*These questions and responses are from 2 February.

*The next Q&A will hopefully be a podcast.