The 2024 Hardball via Hardcore Seattle Mariners offseason plan: Voyage into Infinity
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| The indestructible U.S.S. Mariner setting sail for the 2033 World Series at 54% speed. |
By Stevil, 5 October, 2023.
Free Agents
1. Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH; 2 years, 60 million +1 million for each start, +mutual option: 8 years, 400 million w/ annual opt-outs.
It would be irresponsible of any Mariner blog to create an offseason plan without Shohei in it. Though we're not terribly optimistic about him coming to Seattle (as a Mariner) and the injury is obviously concerning, it's impossible to ignore just how well he fits with the bat alone. When/if he's able to pitch, he would allow Seattle to carry an extra fielder, which in turn would give them more flexibility with the role players.
We've never believed that landing Ohtani would be primarily about money. We're convinced the team he chooses will have convinced him that they're committed to World Series contention (yeah, I know). To ensure he doesn't get trapped by a less-than-honest ownership group, opt-outs after each year, if the mutual-option is exercised, would make a lot of sense, hence our suggestion. We've discussed it before. Hopefully Dipoto's comments about trophies didn't put him off. Fingers crossed.
If they can't land Ohtani, they should probably make a run at Cody Bellinger. His AAV wouldn't be as high as Ohtani's (perhaps on a 5/125 deal?) and he's still young enough that Seattle would be getting some prime years. His positional flexibility would certainly be an asset in addition to the bat.
2. Casey Sadler, RHP; Minor-league deal +incentives.
It's been a long road back for Casey, but he's been loyal to the fans and there isn't a single reason to not offer him minor-league contract.
3. Alejo López, INF; Minor-league deal.
You can never have too much depth and Alejo is one of the better utility options available. He elected free agency after the Reds designated him for assignment. He's a switch-hitter with some MLB experience at second, third, and the outfield corners.
Trades
1. Taylor Trammell, OF, to Colorado; Sean Bouchard, OF/1B, to Seattle.
Trammell is out of options and his combo of power & defense could serve the Rockies well at Coors field. Bouchard has options and better plate discipline, not to mention he's a right-handed hitter who can also play first base. He's exactly the kind of depth Seattle should be seeking.
2. Eugenio Suárez, 3B, Ty France, 1B, and Evan White, IL, to Chicago; Seiya Suzuki, RF, to Seattle.
A swap like this would shore up Chicago's corner infield positions for at least a year while getting them out of Suzuki's back-loaded deal. That could prove to be important if they'd like to retain Bellinger and deploy him in right field. Michael Tauchman made a case for a regular role and Pete Crow-Armstrong isn't far out, so it's easy to see a willingness to move Suzuki if they could address other needs...like first & third. And IL.
Seattle would have a solid replacement for Teo, and though they'd be losing beloved players, they'd be doing so at what we believe is the right time. White's inclusion here is just to offset some of the salary, which may be a stretch without Seattle paying down some of his salary, but we'll assume Jerry's yoga skills would come into play here. If he can stretch the truth the way he has, surely he can stretch out a deal like this. Oh, and Evan is actually expected to be ready for spring.
3. Mike Ford, DH/1B, Trent Thornton, RHP, and José Caballero, INF, to San Francisco; Wilmer Flores, 1B/2B, and Gerelmi Maldonado, RHP, to Seattle.
Fans may not care for this suggestion, but selling high on Ford and Cabby for a first baseman with some right-handed pop and a promising relief prospect (when he's officially a reliever) would be, well, good.
San Francisco would have a controllable lefty replacement for Joc Pederson, a solid reliever, and some quality infield depth they've lacked while saving some dough in the process.
4. Bryce Miller, RHP, and Tai Peete, SS, to Tampa; Curtis Mead, 3B, to Seattle.
Mead would have been an uber-prospect if his defense was more advanced. But in his small 2023 sample, he was better than expected at third and leaving him in the hands of Perry Hill could do the slugger from down-under, wonders.
The cost to acquire him wouldn't be cheap and that's assuming he's even available. We are inclined to believe Tampa will move on from Glasnow, hence Miller's inclusion here, which should at least get a conversation started. Tai just got his feet wet in the Mariners' organization, but he impressed and should have Tampa's interest.
These could be the centerpieces for a significant swap, or a straight-forward trade as-is.
5. Prelander Berroa, RHP, to Arizona; Paul Sewald, RHP, to Seattle.
Of course we don't actually believe this will happen, but it might make sense for both clubs. Seattle learned real fast how valuable Paul was to their bullpen. Arizona might want to try someone else with more control and reevaluate at the deadline. Call it a do-over.
Extensions
1. Tom Murphy, C; 2 years, 8 million.
Tom has been one of Seattle's sparkplugs and his defense alone makes him a significant asset. Losing him would sting. So, an extension is the only real option, and if it takes more than 2/8, so be it. The difference wouldn't likely be that significant.
2. Paul Sewald, RHP; 3 years, 18 million.
This wouldn't be closer-pay, but it just might be enough to keep him around beyond his final year of arbitration eligibility.
Qualifying Offers
None.
Lineup
1. J.P. Crawford, SS L
2. Julio Rodriguez, CF R
3. Shohei Ohtani, DH L
4. Wilmer Flores, 1B
5. Cal Raleigh, C S
6. Seiya Suzuki, RF
7. Jarred Kelenic, LF L
8. Curtis Mead, 3B
9. Josh Rojas, 2B L
Bench: Dylan Moore, Sam Haggerty, Dominic Canzone, and Tom Murphy.
Rotation (initially)
1. Luis Castillo
2. George Kirby
3. Logan Gilbert
4. Marco Gonzales L
5. Bryan Woo
Bullpen
1. Paul Sewald
2. Andrés Muñoz
3. Matt Brash
4. Justin Topa
5. Gabe Speier L
6. Tayler Saucedo L
7. TBD*
8. TBD*
*We anticipate impossible-to-identify additions to fill out 1-3 spots in the bullpen, rather than just names strictly from the current 40-man roster, so take this with a grain of salt on a margarita.
Payroll
Approximately 178 million.
* * *
We'll rest now and hope for the best. You should, too. It's going to be a long offseason.
Notes
- Seattle will need more starting pitching depth, specifically healthy arms on minor-league deals. Think Tommy Milone (but probably not Tommy Milone). It goes without saying that they'll need more relief pitching depth as well. Trying to identify prospective targets is like searching for a needle in a haystack.
- We don't actually anticipate a payroll of 178. We actually believe they should have a payroll north of 178. We actually expect a payroll considerably south of 178.
- Flores can play many infield positions and doesn't need to be platooned. We have him penciled in at first, but he could very well cover third or second. We're not confident SF would trade him. In fact, we're not confident in any of these suggestions, but we're here to speculate for your entertainment.
- Fans will question whether or not Teo should have the QO. Our fear is that after 2 good months and 4 bad months, he might accept, preventing a true impact player being acquired. That's likely the front office's fear as well. Let's hope it doesn't evolve into an excuse.
- We were tempted to suggest sending Geno & Ty to Milwaukee, but couldn't think of a realistic return we liked.
- Ryan Bliss is the reason we think Caballero should be expendable.
- We continue to hear that Seattle hasn't had a true closer. Well, the numbers before the deadline suggest otherwise. We think they should have one and our vote stubbornly goes to Sewald.
- Any questions can be sent via e-mail or in the comment section.
- We're still pretty pissed off after Dipoto's press conference comments. It took real nerve to say what he said.
- If this isn't a championship roster, it's at least close enough that deadline additions could push them over the top.
- More halfassery will result in this blog's death. There are better ways for us to utilize our time than to speculate over just nickel & dime moves that ultimately get the fan base nothing. At some point you have recognize when enough is enough. We hope it doesn't come to that.
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