The HVH Seattle Mariners 2024 Offseason in Review

 

By Stevil & Tommy Gunner, 14 February, 2024

Pitchers and Catchers report today, if they haven't already. For some, it's a relief. This offseason played out like a Netflix thriller. We had a generational (dare I say, centennial?) superstar, Shohei Ohtani, linked to Seattle, and the fan base was screaming for him. We endured countless debates on where upgrades were needed and who fit best, plus positive statements about spending made by the front office before anything significant had happened, later followed by condescending contradictions of those statements in defense of an ownership group that flat-out lied and threw that very same front office personnel that protected them, under the bus...again.

Then we saw the start of a much-needed overhaul with the seemingly impossible task of removing both strike outs from the lineup, and what I would call 'likely unusable committed salary' from the organization and replacing the culprits with better options, become a reality. But the initial moves were primarily salary-dumps that created even more holes than they had when the offseason started. 

Seattle appeared to be moving backwards. They were, but it was intentional. 

Regardless, fans were lit. They were on a white-knuckle ride. It felt like a betrayal of the first order that even the most loyal, positive-thinking fans couldn't accept. We've never seen so much discord and sheer animosity directed towards the organization--especially the ownership group. 

To be fair, or honest, anyway, early drafts of our offseason plans, plus the plan itself, had all the same players being moved. We wanted an overhaul. But none of us believed we would see all three bad contracts moved, along with the players that really didn't fit Seattle's profile. Seriously, who really believed Ray's contract was movable without eating a huge chunk of it? We had our ideas and dismissed them. We'll learn for that. 

This offseason marks the end of eras. First and foremost, the Pete Carroll era in Seattle with the Seahawks, which bummed out many Mariner fans. As if the concerns & doubts with the Mariners' future weren't enough. This was a blow to the community. But this also marked the end of the Marco Gonzales era, the short-lived Eugenio Suárez and Robbie Ray eras, the Tom Murphy era, and for us, most fortunately, the Jarred Kelenic era. 

Kelenic never fit. It was incredibly irritating to see respected bloggers, and even some journalists, gush over him and make excuses for his lack of discipline and professionalism both on and off the field (and in the dugout) even before he ever got called-up. One particular blogger even praised him for his 'petty' jab at the organization on his way out. F***ing diculous. Our biggest whiff of the offseason was believing Seattle was bent on giving him another year. Sometimes it's nice to be wrong.

Anyone who had been paying attention knew that the control-the-zone philosophy was nowhere to be found in the first half of the 2023 season. We talked about that plenty at HVH and Jarred was certainly part of the problem. Changes needed to be made immediately and we started to see that at the deadline with the acquisitions of Josh Rojas, Dominic Canzone, and Ryan Bliss. Seattle still finished the season second in team strike outs, but then the same point about improving contact was emphasized by none other than Jerry Dipoto himself at the conclusion of the season. More changes were needed and letting Teo walk was the most obvious thing to happen. Many of those who rudely mocked this notion (specifically on Twitter) became suddenly quiet when the QO wasn't made, others lashed out at the stupidity of organization (and at us) for agreeing with it. Well, to hell with 'em. That wasn't a wrong move. Selling high on Jarred Kelenic wasn't, either, and no, success in Atlanta wouldn't change that. It isn't black & white. 

People, by nature, tend to think they have to take sides. We want to be a part of something. But, much like with politics, you can have multiple wrongs and no rights. Some things prove to be wrong for one person/place, and right for another. You can also have a mix of good and bad from one person, or one entity, and that's probably what we have with the Mariners offseason, a mix of both: good, in the sense that Jerry and Justin were able to move salary and seemingly improve the roster; bad because of the unnecessary budget restrictions that ultimately deprive the fans of what they were promised and make success in 2024 dependent on the health of a roster full of new guys who've had significant health issues. We'll come back to that in a minute. 

And what's the current result of these new additions you ask?

Seattle now has new corner outfielders, new third basemen (yes, the plural form is intentional and correctly used here), new second basemen, a new designated hitter, a new backup catcher & catching depth, and not to be overlooked, a semi-overhauled bullpen with lots of new depth options to boot. When we reflect on the deadline deal that sent Paul Sewald to the Diamondbacks it looks like a light return for a legitimate closer, and it probably was. But it may have been crucial in getting Seattle the depth that they've lacked since coming out of the rebuild. It may have also been a hint of what was to come regarding spending. Did Seattle worry about paying his projected raise? In hindsight, it sure looks like that may have been part of it. 

The fact that payroll is lower right now than the opening day figures last year, and considering how well the team generally projects on paper, speaks volumes to the job Jerry and Justin have done, even if some fan-favorites were casualties. 

Many are now asking if the Mariners are done overhauling the 40-man roster. The answer is likely 'no'. At the very least, they still need starting pitching depth. But there's also a strong argument for a star hitter. The most obvious fit (says us) is Cody Bellinger, and payroll concerns, both now and for the future, shouldn't exist. Payroll appears to be somewhere between (roughly) 124 and 132 million at the moment, depending on whether you're looking at the active roster payroll, or the 40-man totals. Adding another 20-25m would still likely leave Seattle well below the MLB average of roughly 161m.

Regarding the future arbitration raises of guys like Gilbert, Raleigh, and Kirby, tens of millions are off the books from having moved Ray & White alone (does everyone remember Jerry's comments about Seattle having among the most future committed salary in MLB? Yeah, that excuse is no longer applicable), and if Seattle could move those two, plus Marco, despite their health issues and notable salaries, surely they could move Bellinger in a worst-case scenario. And if they don't want to pay the arbitration raises, imagine what they might get in a return for those players. In fact, we're anticipating that at HVH, but we'll save that conversation for another time. Right now, the team is arguably the closest to legitimate World Series contention they've been since the Jerry Dipoto era began. But, again, this offseason has only been a partial success. A lot has to go right...perhaps, too much.

This is a team that can only likely reach its ceiling if everyone generally stays healthy, and in some cases, are able to rebound after disappointing 2023's. The lineup is riddled with players that have endured significant injuries in recent years and missed considerable time. That's all the more reason to end this era of halfassery and go get that star hitter who would, coincidentally, meet Jerry Dipoto's loosest definition of what 'augmenting' the roster through free agency has been. If it appears that we're intentionally trying to use Jerry's comments against him and the Mariners, it's because we are--and it's fair. When someone in a leadership position makes definitive statements, they have to take responsibility for them and own them, honor them. Excuses are cheap, and Mariner fans have had more than their share thrown at them. 

The offseason has ended, spring training has started. They still have time to get a legitimate clean-up hitter. Will they even try, or will we just hear the praises sung for the options they currently have? 

We'll find out soon enough. 

Notes

*Some of you have asked about alternative ideas for swaps we've had. Well, one was Ray and Kelenic going to Milwaukee for Yelich and Frelick. Another was Marco to Los Angeles for Justin Wrobleski. We had a few others with Suárez and France going to Milwaukee and San Francisco (together in each hypothetical), but struggled with the potential returns. One thing we believed was that the salaries of players like Suárez and France should be reallocated for an outfielder. We definitely saw salary reallocated--far beyond what we expected. For anyone wondering why France wasn't moved, our guess would be that it's because of his history of plate discipline, the potential for a rebound (more power & less double-play balls), and the fact that they need locker room 'anchors'. That's our own term for key players that hold the identity of the team together. France is arguably one of them. We're perfectly okay with him sticking around, we just don't see him sticking around for the long-term. 

*One of the biggest under-the-radar acquisitions this offseason has been experience. Seattle has exactly one player on the position-player side that doesn't have much and there's still the possibility of that changing. 

*We get a lot of questions locally about predictions and opinions on projections. Baseball and its players have too many games & variables to make predictions or precise, accurate projections. But it should go without saying that better players with experience and the ability to stay healthy improves the chances of production, which improves the likeliness of winning.