Um Conto de Natal Hardcore

 

The ghost of Ken Behring visits John Stanton in one of 666 mentoring sessions in which budget restraints were presented to the Mariners' majority owner.

By Stevil, 1 December, 2024

The postseason has been nerve-wracking for anxious Mariner fans, and each time a free agent comes off the board, it feels like Seattle is slipping into the abyss of irrelevance. But we still have four more months before opening day and it's summer at HVH headquarters, so we're quite comfortable while stateside fans freeze waiting for something to happen. 

Anyway, we have some questions that should probably get addressed. Tommy's sitting this one out, so it's just me this time around. The questions have been translated. Here they are...

Q: What is the minimum the Mariners have to do to have a chance at the World Series?

A: No offense to the person who asked this question, but this kind of thinking is the likely reason Seattle has never been to a World Series. Seattle seemingly looks to do the minimum, when they should be trying to do the maximum. Every year since the rebuild (and even before the rebuild), they've lacked quality depth. It's not just the glaring holes, which, again, are third, second, DH, two-three bench spots, and two-three relievers. They need better reserves as well.

About a third of the active roster should change and probably most of the of those on the 40. There's a lot of work to do and we already know they can't waste the first four months having done the minimum during the offseason, then scramble to tighten up at the deadline and get away with it. 

The less Seattle depends on luck and health, the better. 

Q: Jerry Dipoto usually makes trades early in the offseason. Do you expect a big trade soon?

A: I guess that depends on what you consider a big trade. Jerry and Justin probably need to move salary before they can really dive in, so it wouldn't surprise me to see something involving Haniger and/or Garver before or during the winter meetings. Maybe that doesn't bring back a significant name, but sets the stage for moves to come? There are so many needs, though, nothing would surprise me. 

Q: Should the Mariners trade for _________? 

A: We had so many of these dating back to October, I thought it would be better to just lump everything together. Many players make sense for Seattle based on stats & profile. It's important to remember the history of trades as it gives us an idea who is realistic (if available) and who isn't. 

Seattle doesn't chase expensive rentals and the good rentals are expensive. They're not likely going to take on a ton of future salary without getting salary relief or clearing room, either, and they're not likely going to trade starting pitching for a player coming off of surgery if they are actually willing to move a starter. 

I don't know how willing they are to move a prospect that they're high on, but if they do, it's almost certainly going to be for a player under control and not terribly expensive...that they're high on. The Arozarena deal was probably painful (and it shouldn't have been). That, along with the Castillo deal a couple of years ago, probably represent the bar.

We know there are going to be budget restrictions moving forward. We don't know what direction they'll go beyond 2025, so I'd imagine we're not likely going to see a lot of expensive arb-eligible players acquired. The ability to improvise is likely desirable. 

A lot of you have been reading suggestions by podcasters, inexperienced journalists, and other loudmouths on social media (myself included). Even national journalists have made suggestions that get people excited.

But if they don't match the glaring needs or meet historical criteria, ask yourselves how likely those suggestions really are. The same goes for free agents. 

Q: Would you change anything from your plan after the news and moves we've already seen?

A: Nope. I don't know if the intent behind that question had to do with actual names exchanged in a trade, but that doesn't really concern us. The targeted players for Seattle are the bigger focus, and as always, the type of player is more important than the actual name. We've hit on a lot of incoming names over the years (pre-dating the blog) and not one of them came the way we expected or suggested via trade. And in some cases, not even the same year! The point is, don't read too much into the suggested outbound returns. 

Q: Who's your favorite middle-infield prospect that nobody's talking about and how might Seattle acquire him?

A: Now that's a creative question! The answer is Kristian Campbell, in the Red Sox organization. Unfortunately, he's not likely available without a solid starting pitcher being involved, and he isn't likely going to be ready opening day, anyway. I think he's going to eventually be an answer to one of Boston's infield positions rather than a trade chip. 

Q: What would you call an offseason miracle?

A: Good one. Landing Sasaki, moving Haniger and Garver, not depending on rebound candidates, and getting quality depth. 

Q: The Mariners only have 15 million to spend. How can they get what they need with that?

A: I've already addressed this several times elsewhere, but this notion is still in circulation. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times made a statement that suggested they should have around 15m (16?) to spend as things currently stand with the presumed budget.

This was probably a poor choice of words. He wasn't likely implying "That's it! That's all they have!". The budget should be between 150-160m. If you add up all the guaranteed contracts, plus arbitration estimates and pre-arb salaries, it's just under 140, but that's with both Mitches on the books as well. The number fans should be focusing on is the 150-160m--just as we did with our plan. We have one of the most creative front offices, whether you like the personnel, or not. They can find a way to create more flexibility, and again, I'd be surprised if we don't see at least one of the Mitches moved. 

Seattle was never going to be a player for a big-name free agent. But a Pederson, Santana, or Turner? One of them would fit. Two might be a stretch. We know they'll have to cut corners financially, that isn't news. It's a big reason why we had guys like Madrigal & Moncada in our plan. Worth noting, the projections on a Pederson contract, 12-16m AAV on a one or two year deal, are all notably lower than what we proposed. I still think Seattle would have to do better than those projections by offering a third year, or higher AAV. I also don't think Seattle will land him. Call it wishful thinking. 

Q: What gives you hope this offseason and what makes you worry?

A: I've been asked variations of this question a few times. 

Seattle reluctantly made changes to their offensive strategy and system late in the year and the results were positive. They hit on Arozarena (yes, they did) and Justin Turner. DeHart helped Robles unlock his potential. Have they learned anything from those three specifically? I'm hopeful they're understanding hitter profiles better, rather than just chasing hard swingers, and put a simple system in place that works. 

It worries me that it took them so long to do anything even after they made personnel changes. It took another two or three weeks before they started putting out a more consistent lineup. It bothers me that such simple things weren't tried sooner. Will we see more hesitation and stubbornness with each new challenge?

Q: What do you think is an underrated stat?

A: P/PA. This is related to OVP. Selective hitters that make pitchers work in addition to the actually hitting are a good thing. 

Q: Does Seattle need a better left-handed relief pitcher? The intent of the original question (this had to be translated) was likely about a high-leverage LHRP.

A: Many fans believe that they need a late-innings LHRP. Speier and Saucedo really struggled with runners on--and especially with RISP. That's a big reason we didn't include either of them in our plan. I'd be surprised if both are on the opening day roster. I wouldn't be surprised if neither are. 

Seattle could benefit from a shut-down southpaw for the late innings, but I think just getting a lefty that can handle leverage situations without putting runners on and/or coughing up runs would be significant.

We targeted Bryan Hudson via trade because we like what he did in leverage situations. When the pressure was on, he stepped things up. I've talked a lot about Tanner Scott in the past, and a little about Minter, but Seattle can't likely afford either of them.

Q: What do you think of Kevin Seitzer?

A: He spent 10 years with Atlanta and they've had a ton of great hitters, many of which they developed and broke into MLB. He was obviously a big part of that. The 2024 Braves struggled offensively, by their standards (they were still right in the middle in runs scored and wRC+), but half their lineup was banged up or out of commission season-long. I know there was some talk about young Braves' hitters pressing too much as well, so it's probably safe to assume this was at least partially Kelenic's fault. Kidding. Seriously, he's an experienced veteran with a ton of success on his résumé. Great hire by Seattle, and of course, having Edgar overseeing everything is great news.