Choice of Direction

Self-explanatory 

By Stevil, 1 March, 2025

Everything that could be said about this ownership group and the organization they've molded has been said. No matter how loud fans scream for change, profit is always going to come before winning baseball with this group and they've been successful from that perspective. They aren't selling, and with that in mind, we should expect them to set a course that reflects their stinginess, inexperience with on-field success, stubbornness, and lack of concern for a World Series contender.

However, they're coming to a fork in the road. One direction would likely lead them to more mediocrity--not just because of their unwillingness to spend, but because of their unwillingness to move top prospects to address glaring needs. They still believe they can develop hitters and they may be willing to bet the farm, or bet on the farm, that they can do just that, despite having developed just two hitters to date and their best hitting prospects being 2-4 years away. 

But with just 2-3 years left of control of Crawford, Arozarena, Robles, Raleigh, and Gilbert, the alignment is off. It takes time for most prospects to settle in--if they can settle in--and Seattle doesn't have that time, nor enough prospects to fill all the inevitable holes. 

So, how would they fill the gaps? Perhaps with free agents looking to rebound and/or players in the twilight of their career with limited offerings? Would that work? We're in the the middle of a case study that has yet to yield positive results. 

Another direction could be selling high on a number of players over the year, starting at the deadline. It could take a while, but the reward could be a World Series contender. The risk could be an extensive stretch of non-contending baseball. We'll get back to that in a minute.

Of course, they have other options, but they fall within the general confines of these paths. Selling in intervals may be more likely, but that would entail high arbitration salaries that soak up a large part of the budget leaving them in a similar position as they are now: relying on rebound candidates, low-cost aging players and experiments for large roles, plus growing pains with the prospects and young players they acquire. They could be moving in circles.

So, where are they right now?

They entered the offseason with needs at third, second, designated hitter, first base (platoon), utility infielder, backup catcher and fourth outfielder on the position player side. They brought back Polanco and signed Solano. For those who haven't been keeping count, that's one new name. They arguably addressed the first base platoon need with Solano, who should end up in a semi-regular DH role if Haniger and Garver prove albatross to the team. But Solano was it. Again, they brought in one new name. If it's broke(n), don't fix it? That's basically what they did. 

It's good that they're starting the season with Robles, Arozarena, Raley, and Solano. It's not good that the bottom third of the lineup is going to be shaky and the bench is even less encouraging. The infield defense will be questionable. This is a team banking on rebounds on the left side of the infield, in the bullpen and at backup catcher, plus stronger performances in left and center. They're hopeful they'll get an encore from the rotation. That's a lot of things that need to go right. The odds can't be good.

No matter what you hear or wish to believe, Seattle isn't likely getting much, or any, help from the farm on the hitting side this year. What could they realistically expect from a player like Locklear, or prospects with minimal AA success that haven't even reached AAA yet? Few prospects hit the ground running. Even Julio didn't light it up immediately. That's not a knock on Locklear, Young or Williamson, it's simply a rational look at the reality Seattle's facing. For the record, we think Williamson is the closest. He slashed .328/.411/.475 with a 152 wRC+ over his last 141 PAs while offering superb defense. But again, that was at AA. He's still likely behind Nick Dunn on the unofficial depth chart.

Make no mistake, this is a team that lacks depth. This is a team whose lack of depth has arguably cost them multiple postseason appearances. So, the first four months are going to be crucial. They need to stay healthy as much as they need to be productive collectively. 

There are still budget restrictions that will affect what we see mid-season and we can almost be certain that they won't trade top-tier talent for rentals. If they are in contention, we could probably expect to see lower-level prospects traded for controllable players (if teams are interested), and possibly a reliever or two moved with others promoted or brought in, but we probably shouldn't anticipate star-power, or even star potential, in any return. This is purely speculative, and of course a strong first half could change their approach. This is what is seemingly most likely at the moment. 

If they aren't really in the hunt, perhaps Solano, Moore, and even Arozarena and Crawford, could be traded. Castillo would likely be a candidate as well. MLB-ready and near-ready talent would probably be preferred, and maybe this is something we could see even if they are in contention. Lateral moves for more control or lesser financial commitment are always a possibility. Whatever the situation may be, modest moves could buy them another couple of months to make a more decisive decision in the offseason. 

Regardless, there's a very real possibility of déjà vu. Seattle will need to do something about third, second, designated hitter, backup catcher and fourth outfielder again next offseason. It amazes me that nobody has really talked about this. Things could get worse, though. 

If Crawford fails to rebound, and if guys like Robles, Arozarena, or Raley regress, the list of needs would be larger than last offseason's list and with no real financial flexibility as the arbitration raises would wipe out the dough coming off the books. The Mariners may have no real choice but to dive into a full-blown rebuild. That would mean breaking up the core and set Seattle firmly in one direction, but at least it wouldn't be the direction of mediocrity. 

For now, there's at least some hope. It's just hard to see this team being legitimate contenders, not just because of the holes themselves, but because of the way they'll likely address them. There are many question marks collectively, especially when factoring in the relief pitching. As easy as it is to believe in Edgar and the coaching staff, at the end of the day, there's only so much they can do with the talent they have.

The likeliness of moving in a new direction is increasing. They've changed directions twice already under Dipoto. The likeliness of overwhelming disapproval is even higher. Nobody wants mediocrity and nobody wants to endure another rebuild. Whatever they ultimately do, fans may still stick a fork in them.